Main points:
Core points: since the beginning of 2022, the market has continued to adjust due to two major factors: the internal vacuum of economic and financial data and the expectation of tightening external liquidity. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the market has stopped falling, and the release of social finance data exceeding expectations has interrupted the rebound. There are two popular views in the market: one is that although the total amount of social finance is high, the structure is poor and the sustainability is in doubt; Second, US inflation exceeded expectations again, and the rise of US bond interest rates continued to suppress the market. We believe that now is the turning point for the market to get out of the bottom grinding period. Two major expectations are poor: first, the wide credit will be transmitted from the recovery of financial data to the stabilization of the real economy. "Broad money" ultimately needs to rely on "broad credit" to stabilize the economy; Second, the rise of US bond interest rate this time is mainly due to the rise of real interest rate rather than inflation, which is quite different from that at the beginning of 2021. The performance of A-Shares has reflected the expected impact of tightening overseas liquidity. The turning point of social finance is a signal that steady growth is effective. Now it is not like February 2021, but more like the beginning of 2019.
Focus 1: Tianliang Social Finance announced that the market did not immediately "buy". After the holiday, A-Shares have shown signs of recovery. In the first four days of last week, the stock index rose by 3.7% and the gem index fell by 2.8%; The day after the release of social finance data, the Shanghai index fell 0.7% and the gem index fell 2.8%. The reason is that the market has doubts about the implementation of "wide credit". First, short-term loans are more obvious in this credit recovery, so there are doubts about the sustainability of the credit recovery. Second, high-frequency data show that the demand side is still weak. Social finance data show that the year-on-year decline of residents' short-term, medium and long-term loans has expanded, and the recovery of PMI demand is also weaker than that at the production end.
Looking at the social finance data from another perspective, there is poor expectation. 1、 We can be more optimistic about social finance. Historically, in the early stage of the recovery of credit growth, the increase of short-term loans was earlier than that of long-term loans, which occurred in 2017, 2019 and 2020. In January 2022, the increase scale of medium and long-term loans was weaker than that of short-term loans (but also growing), and it is currently in the early stage of credit easing. 2、 The recovery of financial data itself leads the stabilization of economic data. The time lag between the two is about 3-6 months. 3、 The fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report also confirms that "credit easing" is the goal of the next stage. Previously, another popular view in the market was that "wide credit is difficult to be effective, and strong wide currency is needed". We believe that although wide currency will not be absent in the next stage (the next interest rate cut window may be located in Q2), wide currency will eventually be effective through wide credit. The Q4 monetary policy implementation report highlights credit stability. It not only puts forward the "three forces of credit" and more detailed requirements for credit supply, but also sets up a special column to discuss enhancing the stability of credit growth.
Focus 2: the impact of external liquidity, the impact of inflation has been weakened, and A-Shares have reflected the upward impact of US bond interest rates. Previously, the market was worried about the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike and believed that the overseas liquidity impact would exacerbate the market adjustment. First of all, the rise of US bond interest rate mainly comes from the rise of real interest rate rather than inflation expectation, which is quite different from that at the beginning of 2021. Last week, the market focused on the CPI data of the United States in January, which reached a new high in nearly 40 years, but the inflation expectation data released later rose only 0.1 percentage points month on month. At present, the inflation expectation has little impact on the yield of US bonds, and the rise of us bonds is mainly affected by the expectation of raising interest rates. Secondly, if the impact of A-Shares comes from overseas, the impact on US stocks should be more direct, but the performance of US stocks continues to be better than that of A-Shares after the interest rate meeting, and the impact on US stocks is more limited after the release of inflation data.
The impact of external shocks is not the core, and the "bottom of the market" depends on the internal. It will take time for the consensus on the main line of "stable growth" to be established. The current rebound cannot be achieved in a cluster because the internal liquidity has not stabilized. Since the beginning of the year, the capital inflow into the stock market has been weak, and public and private offerings have not made a "good start". In January, the issuance share of partial share public funds was only 50 billion, 373.1 billion less than that in the same period in 2021; The issuance scale of equity private equity funds in January was 31 million yuan, down 97.3% and 61.5% respectively. The gradual correction of the expected difference will lead to the gradual improvement of the internal liquidity environment. In terms of style, continue to continue the value and win the growth.
Industry concern: continue to grasp the infrastructure chain and underestimate the value. 1、 In terms of capital construction chain market, historically, capital construction chain market has a strong sustainability, which often ends when economic indicators stabilize. From the perspective of macro data, finance is usually 3-6 months ahead of economic data; Specifically, in 2018, with the same infrastructure development, the time lag from credit to infrastructure growth stabilization is about 4 months, and there is room for the market of infrastructure chain in the next quarter. 2、 Undervalue repair. The repair of undervalued market often begins when the differentiation between high and low valuations touches the quantile line of 80%, and generally ends when it is reduced to 60%. Easing will accelerate the interpretation of undervalued market. At present, the differentiation degree of high and low valuations is 74.2%, and the repair of undervalued values has not been completed. At the industry level, continue to pay attention to "Yindi insurance" + coal. For the consumer sector concerned by the market, the current market is still in the consensus period of establishing the main line of stable growth, and the liquidity environment does not have the basis for switching. High frequency data also shows that the recovery of consumption is lower than expected. For the consumer sector, you can wait a little longer.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is not up to expectations, the macro-economy fluctuates more than expected, the epidemic development is more than expected, and the policy changes are more than expected.
