Main views of overseas markets in a week: influenced by the latest US inflation data and other factors, US stocks fell significantly this week. Considering that the Fed’s monetary policy is in the early stage of tightening, the valuation of US stocks is still high, and the superposition of more and more US listed companies reducing the performance guidelines for 2022, it is expected that the US stock market has not stabilized at this stage. Considering the greater linkage between the European market and US stocks and the large increase in the European market at the beginning of this round of economic cycle, the European market may still have callback pressure in the future. Considering that the monetary policy of the federal reserve tends to tighten, it is expected that overseas emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa will still have a more obvious correction in the future. From the perspective of China concept stock market, due to the obvious correction of China concept stock last year, the valuation and price risks have been significantly released, and there may be a phased rebound in the future. In the medium to long term, it is not ruled out that the trend of zhonggai shares also depends on other objective factors. From the perspective of the Hong Kong stock market, the Hong Kong stock market continued to rise this week. Considering that the Hong Kong stock market has undergone adjustment last year, it is expected that the impact of external market fluctuations on Hong Kong stocks will not be too great at this stage. In addition, considering the linkage between Hang Seng technology index and Nasdaq Jinlong index, the possibility of periodic rebound of Hang Seng technology index tends to rise in the future. From the perspective of the Hong Kong stock financial industry with obvious recent growth, at this stage, some individual stocks in the Hong Kong stock banking industry have a rapid upward trend in the short term, such as HSBC Holdings and BOC Hong Kong. It is not ruled out that these individual stocks with rapid short-term growth may have a certain change in the rising rhythm in the short term in the future; Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , Bank Of China Limited(601988) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) , Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) H shares have relatively good toughness and low volatility at this stage. There are still some opportunities for the insurance industry to rise in the medium term. Considering that the world is in an economic cycle with high inflation, Hang Seng’s essential consumer industry may have some resilience. In Hong Kong stocks, businesses and professional services, retail and consumer services, which have experienced a sharp correction in the past year, may rebound periodically in the future. Considering the capital construction cycle, there may be better room for rise in the medium-term of construction projects. Considering the support of relevant policies of the industry, the water and environmental protection industries will have better opportunities to rise in the future.
US stock market performance in one week: the three major US stock indexes fell sharply this week. The S & P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.82% and 1% respectively this week, while the NASDAQ fell 2.18%.
Hong Kong stock market performance in one week: Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese enterprises index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng technology index all rose this week, with weekly increases of 1.36%, 3.59%, 2.33% and 0.29% respectively.
Important overseas economic data: in January 2022, the US CPI index was 7.5% year-on-year, a new high since February 1982; The core CPI of the United States was 6% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 5.5%.
Risk tip: the Fed’s monetary policy exceeded expectations; Economic growth is less than expected; The intensification of global geopolitical risks; Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; Global black swan event.
