Key investment points
General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to ficc, wealth management and the industrial chain of large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives maintained rapid growth, new products were launched one after another, the superposition system continued to be standardized, and ficc constituted the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (2015-2016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Insurance:
Interest rates stabilize and valuation repair is imminent. ① Property insurance, auto insurance and non car co frequency resonance, the competition pattern has stabilized, and the advantages of leading insurance enterprises have expanded. One year after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, the year-on-year growth of premium income has been significantly improved. At the same time, the premium of non auto insurance has continued to increase; In the medium and long term, the scale effect will be further strengthened. Leading insurance companies are expected to further expand their profit space and strengthen competitive barriers by virtue of their advantages in rates, channels and brands. ② In the short term, due to the contradiction between supply and demand of the industry, the pressure on the liability side of life insurance is significant. Under the background of stabilizing the interest rate on the investment side, the "policy bottom" of real estate has been established. In order to ensure the steady development of real estate, there are signs of relaxation of real estate financing conditions, and the risk of venture capital real estate investment has been mitigated. In the long run, with the promotion of channel transformation, the trend of population aging and the strategic requirements of "healthy China", the life insurance industry is facing profound reconstruction: the gradual formation of medical and nursing ecology of insurance enterprises, with the increasing demand for health care, drives the industry to a virtuous circle of development and growth, and is expected to promote the trend improvement of both ends of industry assets and liabilities. Soochow Bank of Africa recommended sector ranking: securities, insurance, recommended stock portfolio [China stock market news], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ] (Hong Kong stocks), [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) the central bank and other four ministries and commissions issued the 14th five year plan for the development of financial standardization. We believe that the plan has further improved China's financial standard system, such as richer and diversified market product supply; More solid financial infrastructure; The regulatory system will be more sound, fair and effective, and the economic, social, quality and ecological benefits of financial standardization will be fully demonstrated in the future. In addition, the plan shows the determination to build China's multi pillar pension insurance system, and the insurance enterprises that take the lead in the layout of the pension industry are expected to benefit in depth. 2) The CSRC issued the provisions on the supervision of the interconnection of depositary receipts business between domestic and foreign stock exchanges. We believe that the regulatory provisions will expand the scope of application, financing CDR arrangements, financial information and internal control disclosure requirements, optimize the disclosure content of the annual report, clarify the obligation to disclose changes in equity and clarify the applicable rules for major asset restructuring, and expand the scope of participating in interconnected depositary receipts business to major European markets, Allowing overseas securities issuers to publicly issue and list China depositary receipts in China has widened the financing channels of domestic and foreign enterprises, increased the degree of securities marketization, and provided more optimized and flexible institutional arrangements in supervision.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is less than expected; 2) Policy tightening inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.
