Domestic home furnishing sector
Continue to be optimistic about the software home track dominated by “domestic demand + 2C”. In terms of channel power, software home has the natural barrier of “online can not replace offline” and “bulk can not replace retail”. The leading enterprises gradually occupy the core position in Ka stores, open series stores in the same store in a multi category mode, grasp the offline traffic entrance, and local and small and medium-sized brands may gradually lose the transaction scene, so as to withdraw from the core market competition; In terms of product power, in the past few years, Chinese software enterprises have significantly improved their product power by means of acquiring overseas brands and cooperating with overseas designers. Superimposed on the consumption trend of “the rise of national tide”, consumers’ acceptance of domestic home brands has increased; Software has little impact. Software home consumption belongs to personalized consumption, and hardbound houses are not matched. Therefore, the proportion of bulk business income is very low. The fluctuation of individual real estate enterprises has little impact on the company’s accounting period and short-term performance. In combination with the valuation and cost performance, we continue to be optimistic about the software leaders [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings] dominated by “domestic demand + 2C”; [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] and [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] with good business structure and strong management ability are preferred in the customization section.
Aluminum plastic film sector:
On the whole, the aluminum-plastic film industry is in short supply. At present, the core driving force of the demand for aluminum-plastic film is the rapid growth of soft pack battery shipments, and the future increment may come from two wheeled electric vehicles, energy storage batteries, solid-state batteries and other fields. According to evtank and Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) prospectus data, the proportion of global soft pack battery shipments increased from 23.93% in 2012 to 55.83% in 2020, and the shipments in 2020 were 107.7gwh, yoy + 28.1%; From the perspective of competition pattern, the global aluminum-plastic film is mainly monopolized by Japanese enterprises, of which greater Japan printing (DNP) occupies 50% of the global market share and Showa electric occupies 20% of the market share. At present, China’s aluminum plastic film technology has made progress, product performance and reliability have been improved, and the supply system has been gradually improved, forming a virtuous cycle feedback from upstream and downstream, which is on the eve of domestic substitution. Recommended [ Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) ], the core logic is domestic substitution. The essential reason is technological progress and the gradual improvement of upstream and downstream supply system. The unit price of aluminum plastic film of 21q3 company is 16.8 yuan / m2, the average price of 21h1 is 16.0 yuan / m2, and the average price of 20 years is 15.5 yuan / m2. The unit price continues to increase month on month, and the industry competition is good.
Metal packaging sector:
Metal packaging: the industry has benefited from the price increase of two-piece cans and the improvement of the competition pattern. It is expected to generally achieve high growth in 21 years. 1) Sunrise Group Company Limited(002752) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 166-182 million yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 1116.9% ~ 1232.73%. The market demand and orders of the company’s main products have increased significantly year-on-year, especially the orders of new energy beverage customers, which has driven the double growth of can making and filling business. In addition, high-end aluminum bottles have become one of the new core profit growth points of the company; 2) Jiamei Food Packaging (Chuzhou) Co.Ltd(002969) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 157 million-174 million in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 355.82% ~ 403.8%. The market share of the company’s old customers in the fields of traditional vegetable protein drinks and milk containing drinks continues to expand, and the head brand customers of functional drinks will be newly expanded. In addition, jelly soda, oat milk, thick coconut milk, coconut milk, soybean milk A group of market leading brand customers in subdivided fields such as coffee, and innovative products such as paper cans, ABC and SBC are commercialized and applied to multiple strong brands.
Forestry carbon sequestration:
China is expected to become the world’s largest carbon trading market, and forestry carbon sequestration is the “gold” in CCER project. The global carbon market covers 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, 54% of global GDP and nearly one third of the population. It is estimated that the total quota of the global carbon market will exceed 7.5 billion tons in 2021; In 2019, China’s carbon dioxide emissions accounted for 28.8% of the world, which is expected to become the world’s largest carbon trading market! As a “negative carbon” approach in the process of “carbon neutralization”, forestry carbon sequestration has the characteristics of large carbon sequestration, low cost and high ecological added value. It is the “gold” in CCER project.
The “14th five year plan” and medium and long-term high-quality development outline of the paper industry “was issued, which proposed to accumulate carbon sequestration and biomass resources. On December 10, 2021, the central economic work conference stressed that “it is necessary to conduct scientific assessment, exclude the new renewable energy and raw material energy from the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transformation from” double control “of energy consumption to” double control “of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon, and prevent simple layer by layer decomposition”; On December 17, 2021, Beijing Green Exchange resumed collecting all fees related to CCER trading; On December 24, 2021, the “14th five year plan” and medium and long-term high-quality development outline of the paper industry put forward five development goals, including the accumulation of carbon sink and biomass resources. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) ].
New tobacco sector:
Recently, e-cigarette policies have been intensively introduced, and policy norms have promoted the orderly development of the industry. The national tobacco administration will solicit opinions on the draft of the National Tobacco standard on November 30, 2021. On December 2, 2021, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration publicly solicited opinions on the administrative measures for electronic cigarettes (Draft for comments). We believe that: (1) from the perspective of supervision, the overall supervision of e-cigarettes is basically consistent with that of cigarettes. All links need permission and approval, and adopt unified centralized purchase platform sales; (2) The existing competition pattern of e-cigarettes will be broken, and e-cigarettes will enter the monopoly era. On the product side, the coincidence rules and quality are beneficial to manufacturers with high production standards, high-tech reserves and high capital reserves; The national, provincial and municipal representatives of e-cigarettes on the channel side will face a reshuffle, and wholesale enterprises need to apply for wholesale licenses. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ], [smore international], [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ].
Paper sector:
At present, the prices of most kinds of paper are low, among which the prices of cultural paper and white cardboard are at the bottom. We believe that there may be a tight balance between supply and demand in the paper industry. The “double control” policy will help limit production and ensure prices, enhance the willingness of downstream replenishment, and improve the supply and demand of the industry. (1) Short term: pay attention to the follow-up demand (core factors), the strength and sustainability of power restriction policy, and the progress of new production capacity; (2) Medium and long term: “double control” policy helps to speed up the clearing of production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises, make it easier for large factories to pass the approval of new projects, and further improve the industry concentration. It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with a high proportion of self provided electricity [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ], [ Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) ], [ Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) ], [ Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) ] [ Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) ].
Risk warning: performance forecast data is only preliminary accounting data; The real estate sales and completion are not as expected; Upward risk of raw material price; Industry competition intensifies; The risk of Sino US trade friction.
