In January, the sales of leisure snacks on Alibaba platform continued the year-on-year downward trend. In January, the sales of leisure snacks on Alibaba platform reached 8.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 18.4% and a month on month increase of + 44.7%. The decline of year-on-year growth rate was narrower than that of the previous month, and the month on month growth rate was significantly improved. We judged that Kwai Chung, tiktok and many new channels of competition were the main source of the new generation of e-commerce, which led to the diversion of the central business, which led to the decline of the sales of the leisure food Ali platform. We believe that leisure food companies that realize multi-channel layout and build multi-dimensional and three-dimensional sales channels have more competitive advantages.
In terms of categories, the new year’s festival drives the sales of nuts and fried goods, accounting for more than 30%. In January, the sales of pecans / nuts / fried goods, biscuits / puffed and pastries / snacks took the lead, reaching 2.52 billion yuan, 1.35 billion yuan and 1.17 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of – 15.5%, – 7.7% and – 22.6% respectively, accounting for 31%, 16% and 14% of the sales respectively. The proportion of sales of pecans / nuts / fried goods increased by 12pct month on month. We judge that the annual goods Festival has played a positive role in promoting the sales of nuts fried goods with the attributes of gifts and hoarding. Compared with the same period last year, the proportion of biscuit / expanded sales increased by more than 2.4pct, the proportion of hickory / nut / fried goods sales increased by 1.5pct, and the proportion of candied fruit / jujube / plum / dried fruit / freeze-dried sales decreased by 1.9pct.
In terms of brands, Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , Baicao flavor and Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) continued to lead in sales, and CR3 increased month on month and year-on-year. (1) In January, Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , Baicao flavor and Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) achieved sales of 850 million yuan, 720 million yuan and 610 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 24.5%, – 13.7% and + 35.5% respectively. The sales of the three companies accounted for 10.2%, 8.6% and 7.3% respectively, accounting for -0.9pct, + 0.4pct and + 2.9pct respectively year-on-year. In terms of other brands, the year-on-year growth rate of sales of bibizan, dove and Wangwang exceeded 30%. (2) In January, the CR3 of leisure snacks on Alibaba platform was 26.2%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.6pct and a month on month increase of + 8.1pct. In January, CR3 increased significantly month on month. We believe that the three companies all take nuts fried goods as their main sales products and benefit from the annual goods Festival. We judge that CR3 will continue to decline during the year. On the one hand, due to the decentralized trend of online traffic, on the other hand, the proportion of sales is expected to decline due to the fact that nut speculation will gradually enter the off-season.
Latest industry perspective: it is expected that the sales of leisure food during the Spring Festival will be stable as a whole. Companies with clear adjustment ideas and initial results will be paid attention to in the short term, and companies with competitive advantages and clear growth logic will still be recommended in the long term. (1) We judge that there is little difference between the epidemic factors and the overall consumption environment of this year’s Spring Festival and last year, and the sales of leisure food during the Spring Festival is stable. (2) The Spring Festival in 2022 is relatively early. The delivery and revenue recognition of some annual goods festivals are reflected in 4q21. The base number of superimposed 1q21 is relatively high. We judge that it is difficult for 1q22 snack food to achieve significant growth in revenue and profit. (3) Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the influencing factors such as channel reform and raw material price fluctuation are still in place. 2022 will be a year to test the adjustment and improvement results of leisure food companies. The industry is expected to differentiate, and the adjustment effect is expected to affect the competition pattern of the industry. (4) Focus on companies with clear adjustment ideas and initial results in the short term, and recommend companies with competitive advantages and clear growth logic in the long term. To sum up, we recommend Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) and focus on Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) , Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) .
Risk tips: the promotion of new products is less than expected, the expansion of channels is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is more than expected, the price fluctuation of raw materials and food safety problems.
