Core view
The last piece of puzzle of the epidemic situation, looking forward to the early listing of domestic covid-19 oral drugs
On February 11, nmpa approved the import registration and listing of Pfizer covid-19 oral drug nimatovir tablets / ritonavir tablets combined packaging (paxlovid) with additional conditions. Viewpoint: first, the liberalization of the United States and Europe is the only choice for the uncontrollable epidemic situation and acceptable affordability of the medical system. The combination of vaccine + covid-19 drugs minimizes the impact of the epidemic situation. Second, China will wait and see its changes. The achievements of the two-year anti epidemic campaign are the victory of the system; Before Omicron is in the outbreak period and the impact has not been eliminated, it is expected that China’s existing epidemic prevention policies will not be greatly adjusted. Refer to the impact of the epidemic on Hong Kong’s medical system. Third, according to the pricing of Pfizer covid-19 oral drugs and vaccines, we should expect the listing of domestic covid-19 oral drugs and new vaccines. After a period of observation after Omicron subsided, it may usher in an opening opportunity in the second half of this year.
At the initial stage of the Fed’s scale reduction, our investment strategy is still deep value + covid-19 oral medicine
The industries with deep value include traditional Chinese medicine, blood products, pharmacies, large companies of traditional Chinese chemical medicine and circulation. Traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods and consumer medicine are still the two major directions we choose. The logic of traditional Chinese medicine is more strengthened. First, look for resource products such as “Mao and Pian”; Second, OTC consumer goods are clearly upward and enter the inventory cycle; Third, the traditional Chinese medicine formula granules have a large market, and the medical insurance payment standard is gradually being implemented. In the future, the industry will enter a new round of business cycle; Fourth, prescription drugs and medical insurance support will gradually become clear. Although it will also face the risk of volume procurement, the impact is much smaller than consumables, chemical drugs and biological drugs. One thing is certain that bigpharma of traditional Chinese medicine has come out. Multiple exclusive variety strategies and treatment fields will start a new round of growth in areas where chemical and biological drugs are also blank, such as Alzheimer’s disease, sugar net and so on. In the implementation opinions of Zhejiang Medical Security Bureau on supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, it is mentioned to assess the “medium treatment rate”. The medium treatment rate refers to the proportion of the sum of the three incomes of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces, traditional Chinese medicine medical service items and traditional Chinese patent medicine in the hospitalization medical income of traditional Chinese medicine medical institutions, which is similar to the implementation of the assessment of “medicine proportion”. It is the rapid implementation of the national policy at the end of last year, Subsequently, it is expected that various localities will gradually introduce supporting policies.
Covid-19 epidemic related: pay attention to eliminating the false and retaining the true in the industrial chain of oral specific drugs
First, the emergence of oral covid-19 in China; Second, the upstream intermediate industry chain driven by Pfizer oral drug paxlovid. After Pfizer paxlovid was subsequently authorized by the pharmaceutical patent pool Organization (MPP), the consumption of upstream intermediates is expected to be 3-6 times the current scale. At present, the cdmo order in China has reached the level of 15 billion yuan.
Focus on the company:
Traditional Chinese medicine: resource-based, Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) ; (category) OTC consumer goods, China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) ; Traditional Chinese medicine bigpharma, Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) ; Traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Guangxi Liuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603368) etc. Consumer healthcare: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , Meinian Onehealth Healthcare Holdings Co.Ltd(002044) , Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) etc. Covid-19 oral drug related: Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) etc. Large pharmaceutical enterprises: Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) etc. Independent and controllable innovation and overseas industrial chain: Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) and Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) . API: Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Zhejiang Anglikang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002940) etc; Other underestimated values: Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc(000513) , Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002294) , Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co.Ltd(600079) , Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) , Maccura Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300463) , etc.
Risk tip: uncertainty risk of China’s epidemic control policy, systemic risk caused by the Fed’s interest rate hike, etc
