Core ideas of this issue
Industry outlook and configuration suggestions:
New energy vehicles: the price of raw materials for power batteries has increased significantly since 2021. At present, the price increase information of terminal products has been revealed one after another. We believe that the upstream price increase factor has little impact on the terminal demand. Combined with the sales performance of new forces of car making in January, it is expected that the off-season of production and sales in the first quarter will not be light, and the industrial chain will maintain a high boom. It is suggested to actively pay attention to the battery, diaphragm and other links with good competition pattern.
Recommended: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014)
New energy power generation: the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation. The opinions pointed out that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, we should build a green and low-carbon energy transformation promotion mechanism led by the “double control” of energy consumption and the target system of non fossil energy. By 2030, we will basically establish a complete basic system and policy system for green and low-carbon energy development. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the new silicon material capacity has climbed smoothly. It is expected that the silicon material will enter the capacity intensive launch period in 2022q1, which is expected to stimulate the demand of diamond line.
Recommended: Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438)
Industry trends:
New energy vehicles: according to cleantechnica data, the global sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021 was 6.4954 million, a year-on-year increase of 108%; Among them, the top three sales are: 936000 Tesla vehicles, Byd Company Limited(002594) 594000 vehicles, and 456000 SAIC GM Wuling vehicles.
New energy power generation: Shandong issued the “14th five year plan” for renewable energy development in Shandong Province. It is expected that the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in the province will reach more than 90gw in 2025. Including 57gw of photovoltaic power, 25gw of wind power, 4gw of biomass energy and 4gw of hydropower.
Risk factors: the downstream demand is less than the expected risk; Risk of technical route change; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Market competition intensifies risks; International trade risks, etc.
