Main points:
The market ushered in the spring recovery, and the policy of broad credit superposition and stable growth was good for the science and technology sector
The recent restless market in the computer sector has been frequent. Through the resumption of trading, we found that the computer Shenwan index fell by 9.69% in the week before the Spring Festival, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.12%, mainly due to the inhibition of A-share risk appetite in the peripheral markets caused by the Fed’s interest rate hike. Computers tend to react more violently in the environment of weakening the overall market. After the festival, the computer sector rebounded under the support of external bad digestion, policy overweight and abundant liquidity, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. According to the Hua’an strategy report “spring agitation, growth and steady growth are both important”, the steady growth chain and growth style may become the main line of the market rise in February: the steady growth effect is emerging, focusing on the construction direction of new power grids, such as power informatization; Growth or rebound, focus on localization 3.0 of computer basic industrial chain, such as R & D and design industrial software; In terms of theme opportunities, focus on relevant sectors of digital economy, such as digital RMB.
The TMT sector returns to the undervalued range as a whole, and the computer has high elasticity and more investment potential
Through the valuation resumption of TMT sector, we find that the computer sector has relatively more investment value among the four TMT sectors. In the past two years, the PE hubs of computer / Electronics / media / communication Shenwan index were 64x / 45x / 36x / 38x respectively, and the current valuation was 49x / 30x / 28x / 38x respectively. After the overall correction of A-Shares before the Spring Festival, the computer, electronics and media sectors are currently at a low valuation. The standard deviation of the valuation of the four sectors is 10.1 / 7.9 / 8.4 / 4.5 respectively. The valuation of the computer sector is more volatile and has great investment potential in the environment of market recovery.
The computer sector has frequent policies and pays attention to relevant sub tracks
Benefiting from the wide credit and stable growth policies and superimposing the recent policies of the computer sector, we believe that the following main lines deserve attention: 1) power informatization: the transformation of power system is accelerated under the background of double carbon, and the construction of power informatization has become one of the key points of new power grid construction. We estimate that the proportion of intelligent investment in the two networks in the 14th five year plan is expected to increase to 14% – 17%, and the investment will increase from about 300 billion yuan to 450 + billion yuan. Among them, the increase in the proportion of clean energy, the upgrading of efficient power grid system and the transformation of application side will bring new investment opportunities for information upgrading. It is recommended to pay attention to Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) , Ygsoft Inc(002063) , South Grid technology, etc. 2) Digital RMB: Recently, the central bank and other four departments issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of financial standardization, proposing to steadily promote the development of legal digital currency standards and establish standardized processes for issuance, circulation and return. We believe that in the future, the central bank may formulate more specific standards to regulate digital currency related businesses, so as to promote the large-scale popularization of digital RMB. It is recommended to pay attention to Grg Banking Equipment Co.Ltd(002152) , Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , Zhejiang Zhengyuan Zhihui Technology Co.Ltd(300645) , etc. 3) R & D and manufacturing industrial software: the international technological competition is intensifying day by day, while many core links in the upstream are dominated by overseas companies, and the market share of overseas enterprises exceeds 70%. Therefore, the domestic substitution of the upstream core tool chain is urgent. At present, many high-quality enterprises have been born in EDA, scientific instruments and other links in China. It is suggested to pay attention to dingyang technology, Kelun electronics and so on.
Suggested concern
Fintech & Xinchuang: Grg Banking Equipment Co.Ltd(002152) , Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) .
Industrial software: Zhejiang Heda Technology Co.Ltd(688296) , dingyang technology, Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) .
AI: Pci Technology Group Co.Ltd(600728) , Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) .
Smart car: Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Arcsoft Corporation Limited(688088) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Autel Intelligent Technology Corp.Ltd(688208) , China Transinfo Technology Co.Ltd(002373) .
Risk tips
1) the epidemic situation intensifies and reduces the expenditure of enterprise informatization; 2) Fiscal and monetary policies are lower than expected; 3) The fluctuation of supply chain increases, which affects the development of science and technology industry.
