Securities: in the first week of the year of the tiger, the market turnover rebounded day by day, and the average daily turnover increased by 60 billion to 913.5 billion month on month, of which the turnover on Friday reached 992.9 billion; The balance of Liangrong (February 10) continued to fall to 1.72 trillion, and the downturn in Liangrong market has not been alleviated. In the 2021q4 report on the implementation of China’s monetary policy issued by the central bank, it was mentioned again that maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity, reducing comprehensive financing costs, increasing support for key areas and weak links of the national economy, the countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy in the future, the steady decline of interest rate and the relative stability of exchange rate can be expected. The January social finance, credit, M2 and other data released in the middle of the week exceeded expectations, and the credit structure is also inclined to enterprise financing. The positive fundamentals of gradual stabilization of economic growth and liquidity spillover are expected to be transmitted to the capital market level, so as to provide continuous valuation and repair opportunities for the securities sector. At the policy level, on Friday, the CSRC issued the regulations on the supervision of the interconnected depositary receipts business of domestic and foreign stock exchanges, expanding the scope of business to companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and to Switzerland and Germany, allowing overseas basic securities issuers to use the market-oriented inquiry mechanism for financing, while optimizing various forms of continuous supervision such as information disclosure and expanding the business stock. Although the impact of the new regulations on China’s capital market and intermediaries is limited in the short term, it is helpful for Chinese enterprises to expand financing destinations and reduce financing costs in the medium and long term. After expanding the total scale of the project, it will also become a considerable source of income for intermediaries such as securities companies.
Insurance: the insurance sector rose nearly 12% this week, becoming a bright color of the non bank sector. The continuous rise of the insurance sector is mainly due to the extreme style switching in the market driven by risk aversion, and the undervalued insurance sector has become a “safe haven” for risk aversion funds. The stabilization and rapid rise of the ten-year bond interest rate in the later part of the week provided a direct catalyst. However, we can see that the industry fundamentals have not improved significantly in the near future. Considering the implementation of the new regulations of the second generation and the repeated epidemic, and the massive loss of agents, it is still difficult for insurance enterprises to develop their industry; In addition, the change of residents’ consumption concept and consumption structure continues to reduce the demand for margin long-term guaranteed products, so it is too early to judge the inflection point of the industry. At present, the lengthening of the investment cycle of the subject matter of insurance is a high probability event. We believe that if the ten-year bond interest rate continues to rise, life insurance companies will benefit from higher interest rate elasticity and valuation repair is still a high probability event; If the interest rate stabilizes or goes down, the property insurance subject with relatively good fundamentals will be more dominant.
Sector performance: during the five trading days from February 7 to February 11, the non bank sector rose by 5.60% as a whole. According to the industry classification standard of Shenwan, the non bank ranked 9 / 31 of all industries; Among them, the securities sector rose 3.14% and the insurance sector rose 11.13%, both outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (0.82%). In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers of securities companies were Xiangcai securities (11.87%), Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) (7.86%), Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (7.30%), Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) (5.64%), Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) (5.30%). The gainers and losers of insurance companies were China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (14.66%), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (11.25%), Hubei Biocause Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000627) (10.76%), {601601601} (9.79%), New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (8.86%), The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) (7.03%), Xishui Strong Year Co.Ltd Inner Mongolia(600291) (- 2.77%).
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, policy risk, market risk and liquidity risk.
