Key points of the report
Market review: in January 2022, the monthly rise and fall of CS media index was – 13.96%, and the industry was deeply adjusted. In the same period of 2021, the rise and fall of CS media index was – 0.51%. The three-level sub industry indexes fell. The indexes of Internet audio-visual and other cultural and entertainment industries fell by more than 20%. The indexes of games, Internet advertising and marketing, information search and aggregation, animation and publishing industries fell by more than 10%. Only 19 listed companies in the industry closed up, Jc Finance & Tax Interconnect Holdings Ltd(002530) rose by 55.30%.
Monthly report of industry data: [film] the cumulative box office in January 2022 was 2.707 billion yuan, with 10.684 million screenings and 68.62 million film viewers, which was the same as the box office in December 2021; On a year-on-year basis, in January 2021, the market grossed 3.329 billion, with 89.93 million film viewers. The box office and film viewers decreased by 18.68% and 23.70% respectively. [mobile app] the top ten apps in the global December download list include 6 social media apps, 2 Entertainment apps, 1 shopping app, and 1 photo and video software app; In the revenue list, there are 7 entertainment apps, 1 social media app, 1 book and reference book app, and 1 utility and efficiency app. [mobile games] under the background of scarce version numbers, most of the new games launched in the past six months have shown strong explosive power; In the mobile game revenue list of China’s app store in January, the revenue of “glory of the king”, “peace elite” and “original God” ranked the top three. In the revenue list of going to sea in December, the revenue of Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) “Puzzles & survival” increased steadily, reaching a daily high on December 24, and the revenue increased by 10% month on month in December. [book] red rock rose to No. 1 in fictional sales in January 2022, and Mr. toad went to see a psychologist ranked No. 1 in non fictional sales for eight consecutive months. Among the top 30 children’s retail sales, classics and recommended books for students increased.
Investment suggestion: the media sector made a deep adjustment in January 2022, with a deep decline in the whole month. By the end of the month, the overall price earnings ratio (TTM) of the sector had been adjusted to 20 times, which was located at the quantile of 12.60% of the price earnings ratio of the sector in the past five years; The valuation of publishing, other advertising marketing, games and other segments of each segment is lower than that of the industry as a whole. The valuation of internet film, television, audio, games, publishing and other segments is at the quantile of 10% or less of the P / E ratio in recent five years. We believe that this month’s adjustment, on the one hand, is affected by the overall fluctuation of the secondary market, and the mood is low. On the other hand, since the end of 2021, the media sector has increased significantly in industries and individual stocks under the catalysis of themes such as metauniverse and the Spring Festival. Superimposed on the fact that the performance growth rate of some leading companies in the forecast at the end of January has slowed down less than expected, causing market concerns, and all factors have led to the decline of the market. As we mentioned earlier in the strategy, 2021 is the policy year of the media industry, and the production and platform operation of games, films and other content are facing a trend of stricter supervision; For the listed companies in the industry, on the one hand, they need to adjust their operations according to the latest regulatory requirements, on the other hand, they also need to carry out transformation and adjustment according to their own development stage, but they are relatively lagging behind in the performance embodiment and face performance fluctuations in the adjustment and transformation stage. We suggest to lengthen the cycle. Firstly, the company’s positioning and development path should be further clarified, which is more conducive to leading listed companies to stabilize their market position and expand their market share; Secondly, under the framework of meta universe, VR / AR, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, blockchain, 5g and other new technologies are developed to promote the implementation of NFT, virtual space, virtual human, VR / AR and other applications and business models. National and local governments will also include the development of digital application scenarios and meta universe technology into the 14th five year industrial plan, Are expected to bring new development opportunities to the media industry; Third, after this round of decline, the valuations of industries and individual stocks have been adjusted to historical lows. It is suggested to grasp the opportunity of sector valuation repair and pay attention to the leading companies with sustainable competitive advantages in the medium and long term.
In terms of investment suggestions, 1) games: the version number has not been issued in the short term or has an impact on the product scheduling of game companies. On the other hand, due to the insufficient supply of new games, the strength of operating products is tested, the market is expected to further concentrate on head games, and long-term boutique games with large-scale and stable users are expected to enjoy reduced competitiveness and dividends. In addition, the acceleration of the game going to sea The growth of overseas revenue will supplement and support the performance of listed companies. It is suggested to pay attention to G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) with excellent performance of self-developed game products. 2) Film & Cinema: the performance of the Spring Festival market is lower than expected. We believe that it is mainly due to the rise of ticket prices and the deviation of film supply types, which reduce the film viewing enthusiasm. At present, the average ticket price has dropped after the festival, and there are abundant reserves of film projects during the year, and the recovery of the film market is expected. It is suggested to pay attention to the increase of the market share of head film and cinema companies, including Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , China Film Co.Ltd(600977) and Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) . 3) Film & Television & Video: in the “14th five year plan” of the TV series industry, it once again emphasizes the creation of high-quality content and the salary of performers, and proposes to enrich the TV series scheduling and create a TV series enterprise with strong creative and production capacity. The value of high-quality drama production companies and platforms is expected to be further highlighted, It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Huace Film And Tv Co.Ltd(300133) (taking the creation of high-quality content as the core, and actively layout virtual idols, content copyright library and other formats), Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (the monsoon theater went online in January, and the score of Douban in “Jiang Zhao dawn” reached 7.8, and the score of “big detective 7” The online broadcasting index ranks first, and the short-term performance is under pressure. In the medium term, factors such as high content barriers and rising member prices are expected to promote the further growth of the company’s member and advertising business revenue. In the long term, the combination of technical layout and content such as metauniverse will lay a foundation for the company to enrich application scenarios and enhance content innovation and value amplification).
Risk warning: the impact of epidemic spread; Risks of policy changes and regulatory changes to the development trend of the industry; Income volatility of a single cultural product; The online progress of new works is less than expected.
