Core view
Market review this week. In the sixth week, the real estate sector index was stronger than the CSI 300 index and the gem index. The relative return of the real estate sector compared with the CSI 300 index was + 3.2%. The CSI 300 index closed at 4601.4, with a weekly increase of + 0.8%; The gem index closed at 2746.38, with a weekly increase of - 5.6%; The real estate sector index closed at 3461.25, with a weekly increase of + 4.0%.
Industry highlights this week. The central bank said it would not use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy. The dividing line of individual housing property tax rate in Shanghai will be raised to 81948 yuan / m2 in 2022. Nanchang centralized listing of 11 parcels of land, a total of 710.4 mu, with a total starting price of 4.83 billion yuan. Hangzhou's first indoor ski resort is expected to open in the summer. The Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) 226 million shares held by shareholders such as sunshine group were frozen by the judiciary.
Sales of new houses decreased this week compared with last week, and sales of second-hand houses decreased compared with last week. From the 5th week to the 6th week, the sales of new houses in 29 major cities were 20000 units, a decrease of 35.6% compared with the 4th week; The sales of second-hand houses in 11 major cities was 4000 units, a decrease of 35.4% compared with the fourth week; Compared with the fourth week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in first tier cities were - 26.8% and - 37.8% respectively; Compared with the fourth week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in second tier cities were - 42.8% and - 34.1% respectively. Inventory decreased compared with last week, and inventory sales increased compared with last week. As of the 6th week, the inventory in 15 major cities was 1.23 million units, a decrease of 3000 units compared with the 4th week; The stock to sales ratio was 13.7 months, an increase of 0.4 months over the fourth week. The land market transfer heat this week was the same as last week. From week 5 to week 6, a total of 8 pieces of land were sold in 26 major cities. The amount of land transfer decreased. From week 5 to week 6, the land transfer fee of 26 major cities was 2.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.2 billion yuan compared with week 4. The average premium rate increased. From week 5 to week 6, the average premium rate of land transactions in 26 major cities was 17.4%, an increase of 17.2 percentage points over week 4. From week 5 to week 6, the number of land auction in 26 big cities is 0.
Announcement of key companies. Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) released the operating data in January 2022. Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) plans to issue 1 billion yuan of bonds. Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) a number of corporate bonds will be suspended and the trading mode will be adjusted. Sichuan Languang Development Co.Ltd(600466) the total amount of principal and interest of debt due and unpaid is 29.86 billion yuan
Investment proposal and investment object
From the perspective of sales during the Spring Festival, the demand is still low, and the current industry fundamentals are still inertia downward. Previously, a number of real estate companies issued performance forecasts, predicting a loss or sharp decline in 2021. Low and medium rated real estate enterprises are still in the dilemma of debt crisis, and the existing policies can not improve their credit status. This week, there was a heated discussion on the deregulation of pre-sale funds. After the rise of A-share real estate stocks since the new year of 2022, and the uncertainty in the overseas market increased significantly, we believe that more top-down real estate support policies are still being introduced. Under this combination of fundamentals and policies, we focus on the valuation repair of real estate enterprises with financial security in the short term. We are optimistic about the first-line leaders with stable performance, and recommend Poly Real Estate (600048, buy) and Vanke A (00000 2, buy); Second tier leaders with flexible performance are recommended Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383, buy) and Longhu group (00960, buy). At the same time, we are optimistic about the property management and business management industries with rapid growth and strong consumption attributes. We recommend Country Garden Service (06098, buy), poly property (06049, buy), China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) (001914, increase in shareholding), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) (002968, buy), rongchuang service (01516, buy), Xingsheng business (06668, buy).
Risk tips
Sales were significantly lower than expected. The counter cyclical policy was less than expected. Interest rates have risen significantly
