Market review last week:
Last week (2022.02.07-2022.02.11), the food and beverage sector (Shenwan) rose 0.31%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82%. The food and beverage sector lost 2.71 percentage points to the Shanghai composite index last week, ranking 25th in the weekly rise and fall of Shenwan's 31 primary sub industries. Sub sectors rose most of the time, and the Baijiu sector fell by 0.35%.
Core point: spring wine Baijiu differentiation, Emblem Wine Wine performance is good.
Baijiu sector: the Spring Festival peak season Baijiu dynamic differentiation, structural differences. Spring Festival Baijiu sales increased steadily. In the short term disturbance before the Spring Festival, some areas were blocked by the local residents, and the consumption scene of the banquet was limited. In terms of subregions, provinces that are less affected by the epidemic and benefit from the effect of population return, such as Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanxi and other regions, have better dynamic sales performance, while Henan, Tianjin, Hangzhou and other regions are greatly affected by the epidemic, and the dynamic sales situation is relatively poor. In terms of brands, the demand for gifts during the Spring Festival is rigid, and the dynamic sales of maowulu and other high-end famous wines are stable, with stable wholesale prices; The sub high-end liquor with a high proportion of banquet scenes has obvious differentiation, and the sub high-end liquor in regions with high demand performs better, among which Hui liquor and Su liquor perform best.
Baijiu industry has a long-term demand and the middle and high-end Baijiu has room for growth under the structural optimization. Baijiu has a high consumption stickiness. Without the external policies such as consumption tax, Baijiu demand is still stable in the long run. Under the promotion of consumption upgrading, Baijiu industry structure optimization trend is obvious. On the one hand, under the trend of consumption upgrading, Baijiu consumers tend to be rational. In the past, the trend of "drinking more" changed to "drinking good wine", and the demand for famous liquor enterprises was even higher. Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu, on the other hand, the liquor industry differentiation, high-end liquor price increase driven performance growth, the second high-end liquor products upgrade enjoy high-end Baijiu price after the price band, we optimistic about the structural optimization brought about by the company's profitability.
Beer sector: beer production has increased steadily, and the performance is expected to maintain high growth. In terms of output, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, affected by the epidemic disturbance in 2020, China's Beer Enterprises above Designated Size produced a total of 34.1111 million liters of beer. In 2021, with the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control, offline catering gradually recovered, beer consumption scenarios increased, and China's beer output rebounded to 35.624 million liters, an increase of 4.44% year-on-year, In December, the single month increased by 10.86% year-on-year, and the national beer production increased steadily. In 2022, the disturbing factors of the epidemic are expected to dissipate, catering consumption is expected to recover in an all-round way, beer consumption scenario is restored, and beer production and sales may continue to grow. In addition, in 2021, affected by the rising prices of upstream raw materials, crude oil and other bulk commodities, the cost side of beer manufacturers was under pressure, and manufacturers chose to increase prices to cover costs. Under the trend of high-end and diversified consumption upgrading, consumers have a strong acceptance of the price increase of high-end products and original products launched by beer manufacturers. In 2022, with the release of price increase bonus, the high performance growth of beer industry in 2022 is certain.
Investment advice
Plate allocation: Baijiu > beer > dairy products > snack food > condiment;
Baijiu: we should pay attention to the high potential Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) of high-end liquor enterprises Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and sub high end wine enterprises.
Beer: it is suggested to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) with high growth expectation in future performance;
Dairy products: it is suggested to focus on Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) in the three aspects of production capacity, channels and products.
Risk tips:
Baijiu price rise less than expected, terminal demand fell, food safety issues.
