Market review: from February 7 to February 11, the media sector rose 3.58%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.76pct in a single week (0.82%); Outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.56pct in a single week (3.02%); Outperformed the growth enterprise market index by 9.17pct (- 5.59%) in a single week, ranking 17th in the weekly rise and fall of CS level I industry and in the middle, ranking 13th higher than the previous period.
Investment suggestion and rating: Based on the first-class industry classification statistics of CITIC, 99 of the 153 listed companies in the media sector have disclosed the performance forecast for 2021, of which 41 have suffered losses, with the largest loss reaching 1.4-2 billion yuan. The impairment of goodwill is still having a significant impact on the performance of listed companies in the media sector, In addition, the performance of leading companies in some segments in 2021 was lower than expected, coupled with the obvious short-term shock of A-Shares as a whole, and the superposition of multiple factors jointly led to greater suppression of the media sector.
In terms of policies, the successive introduction of policies such as the 14th five year plan China Film Co.Ltd(600977) development plan, the 14th five year plan for the development of publishing industry, the 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy, the 14th five year plan for copyright work, and the 14th five year plan for the development of Chinese TV dramas have clarified the development path and provided guidance for all fields of the media sector, Virtual reality, 8K HD video, interactive video, immersive video, cloud games, movies and TV dramas, book publishing and other applications in the field of cultural consumption will achieve benign and standardized development in the medium and long term. From the perspective of valuation, as of February 11, 2022, the valuation of the media sector was 20.86 times (TTM, overall method, excluding negative values), 75% of the average p / E ratio of the past five years and 79% of the median, which was close to the valuation level of Q4 in 2018 and was still in a historically low position. Therefore, the investment rating of "stronger than the market" is maintained.
It is recommended to pay attention to:
1) the game sector is still under regulatory pressure. The suspension of edition number leads to a slight shortage of new tour product supply, and the product ranking on the head list is solidified. The edition number problem will further test the game manufacturers' long-term operation and ability to go to sea. The head game manufacturers have relatively strong content reserves and advantages in technology and operation Diversification and sea going strategy are more advanced, and the existing games provide support for the current performance. In the future, the reissue of edition numbers will drive the recovery of new product supply and bring more flexibility to performance. It is suggested to pay attention to the top companies in China's game industry and give full play to their competitive advantages in the process of supply side reform.
2) according to the performance forecast disclosed by Listed Companies in film and television theaters, although it is better than that in 2020, the China Film Co.Ltd(600977) industry will continue to be under pressure in 2021. The box office performance of the Spring Festival is lower than expected, and the decline of film viewers is more obvious. The epidemic situation, high ticket prices and lower than expected content quality all have an impact on the Spring Festival. In the post epidemic era, compared with raising the box office through price increases, the core of guiding the industry to develop more healthily and healthily is to drive the repair of film viewers by continuously outputting high-quality film content and reshape the habit of audiences going to cinemas. The normalization of the epidemic may continue to have an impact on the China Film Co.Ltd(600977) industry, but the market self-regulation mechanism of the survival of the fittest will make film and television companies more inclined to high-quality content when setting up projects. In addition, after the industry rectification, clear restrictions on actors' remuneration are taken, which is expected to provide more performance space for film and television companies.
3) virtual human technology. After the new year's Gala of many mainstream satellite TV channels in China, virtual human technology has been applied again in the programs of Beijing Satellite TV, Anhui Satellite TV and Jiangsu Satellite TV Spring Festival Gala. Although at present, virtual human technology is still mainly used in Pan entertainment fields such as virtual idol, e-commerce live broadcast, short video and news variety shows, in the future, the application scenario of virtual human technology may be further expanded to intelligent office, social networking, finance, education, medical treatment and other fields. As one of the underlying technologies of the meta universe, virtual human technology has relatively large application space.
It is recommended to pay attention to the head companies in the subdivided field of the media sub section: Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) , Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) , Citic Press Corporation(300788) , Guomai Culture & Media Co.Ltd(301052) .
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation and virus mutation risk; The tightening of regulatory policies exceeded expectations; Intensified market competition; Goodwill impairment risk; The quality of output content is lower than expected; The characteristics of project system lead to the fluctuation of the company's performance
