The first week of the first week of Baijiu index fell first and then raised, the whole week rose 1.92%. The market is always cautious about the Baijiu sector. In terms of market style, it is mainly the high-frequency data feedback during the spring festival that makes the market not optimistic about Spring Festival consumption. We believe that the consumption data feedback during the spring festival mainly reflects the situation of the first and second tier cities, and the consumption in the third and fourth tier cities and rural markets is not included. The number of people returning home this year has increased compared with last year, which is equivalent to the decline of consumption, and the actual consumption is still recovering. With the feedback of actual consumption, market confidence will recover.
Baijiu consumption this spring has changed over the past year: 1, the rhythm of the money continues to advance. In the 21 year Baijiu industry, the total amount of money collected in the liquor industry was relatively high. In the past year, Q1 accounts for about 35% of the annual duty, and most of the liquor companies received 40% in 21 years. This year is even earlier. Major liquor enterprises also require dealers to make payment in advance, and the payment collection proportion of some liquor enterprises reaches 45%. 2. From the perspective of consumption structure, the demand for gifts this year is weaker than that in 21 years. The epidemic in 20 years has a great impact on life. The demand for gifts for the Spring Festival in 21 years is equivalent to the demand for emotional compensation for one year. The demand for gifts returned this year. Due to the relaxation of the return policy and the obvious drive of the banquet market in the third and fourth tier cities, the overall performance of sub high-end wine this year is better than that of last year. 3. The consumption atmosphere of sauce and wine decreased. First and second tier sauce wines such as Xijiu, Diaoyutai and Langjiu performed well, but the consumption atmosphere of third and fourth tier sauce wines was obviously declining.
From the whole year, we think that the listed Baijiu enterprises have a relatively stable growth performance. 1. With the improvement of epidemic control experience, there will be fewer and fewer measures such as blockade, and the demand for parties and banquets is expected to further recover. 2, this year’s national monetary policy and fiscal policy comparison, consumer demand is stimulated under economic stimulus, Baijiu demand. Key recommendations Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) .
Risk tips:
The impact of the epidemic has increased, which has a great impact on the macro-economy and the demand for food and beverage. The company has major management defects, etc.
Review of Hong Kong Stock Market:
This week, the essential consumption index of Hong Kong stocks rose by 0.34%, of which the key companies rose or fell by 11.35% for unified enterprise China, 7.83% for Yihai international, 6.02% for Budweiser Asia Pacific, 2.77% for Mengniu Dairy, 2.15% for nongnong Shanquan, 2.95% for China Resources beer and 7.27% for Yashili international.
