\u3000\u3000 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (000596)
The promotion of mobile sales is positive, and the heat is expected to continue. According to the feedback of channel research, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) closed the account in September last year. The overall payment during the Spring Festival this year exceeded expectations, and the willingness of terminal goods preparation before the festival is positive. The performance in the first quarter is expected to reduce the pressure on the performance of the whole year, thus forming a virtuous circle. At present, the terminal inventory is less than one month, and the dealer inventory is also slightly lower than that in previous years. After the festival, the dealer inventory is expected to continue to flow to the terminal to further optimize the dealer cash flow. We believe that there are two main reasons for the higher than expected payment: on the one hand, it is because the economy of the Yangtze River Delta is strong and less affected by the epidemic; On the other hand, Anhui is a major province of outbound work. According to Baidu migration big data, the flow of people returning home this year has more than doubled year-on-year in 2021, restoring strong demand for gifts and banquets at the middle and high-end and sub high-end in Anhui. The demand for wedding banquet is still under the control of the epidemic for the time being, but it is relatively rigid from the perspective of the whole year. Since last year, the wedding banquet has been transferred to other holidays and daily weekends. It is expected that the demand for wedding banquet during the Spring Festival is expected to be supplemented after the festival. Meanwhile, baidu migration big data shows that the scale of return passenger flow during the Spring Festival this year has not fully recovered compared with that in 2019. Therefore, we judge that the terminal heat performance of Anhui after the 15th day of the first month will be between 2019 and 2021, and the duration of the peak season may be longer than 2019, that is, it is expected to continue to maintain positive sales after the 15th day of the first month.
Both supply and demand sides jointly promoted structural upgrading, and the proportion of gu8 + increased significantly. According to the grassroots research feedback, since this year, the sales assessment and brand promotion have turned to products above gu8. After the strict price control in the second half of 21, the channel profit of the Spring Festival in 22 has been guaranteed, the profit margin of secondary high-end products is high, and the channel thrust is sufficient. Gujing’s sub high-end product strategy is relatively successful. During the Spring Festival, gu5 and gu8 remain stable and rising as a whole, while gu16 and GU20 in Hefei are in large quantities. The daily consumption attribute of gu16 is strengthened, the demand before and after the festival is strong, and the demand for banquets is significantly increased; The overall performance of GU20 in Anhui is stable, the consumption before the festival is hot, and its recognition in the gift market is significantly improved. We expect that the proportion of gu8 and above products in channel sales has increased year-on-year, and the continuous upgrading of product structure is expected to accelerate the improvement of the company’s profit margin.
We look forward to the reform of state-owned enterprises and sufficient room for the release of main business profits. Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) at present, it is in a critical period of structural upgrading and national expansion. There are many competitors outside the province, and the province is also facing the gradual attention of national famous wines. If the reform of state-owned enterprises can be implemented, the company is expected to establish institutional advantages, bind the interests of the management team and achieve win-win results. According to the third quarterly report of 2021, the sales expense rates of Fenjiu, Yanghe, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and Yingjia are 16.14% / 10.04% / 12.51% / 9.88% respectively, while the sales expense rate of Gujing in the same period is 28.74%, of which there is great room for optimization of air expenses and labor expenses, and there is a broad space for profit release in the future.
The price of Spring Festival is stable, and advertising promotes the improvement of brand power. According to the channel survey, the rated prices of Gu 30, Gu 26, Gu 20, Gu 16, Gu 8 and Gu 5 are about 1200, 750, 530 / 490, 360 / 330, 210 and 115 yuan respectively. Under the high-volume pressure test in the peak season, the price is basically stable compared with the end of last year. During the Spring Festival, the advertising of the Spring Festival Gala of China Central Television, Anhui and Jiangsu boosted Gujing’s brand strength and contributed to the implementation of the development strategy around Anhui. Compared with last year, many stores reported that consumers’ recognition of Gu 16 and Gu 20 has gradually increased, and the performance of gift after the festival and Gu 5 in the middle price band has also improved, which is likely to return to positive growth this year. It is expected that the development focus of Hefei market this year will be to improve the product structure and stabilize the basic market; The development outside the province mainly focuses on the strategic market Henan and the Yangtze River Delta with high consumption level, and continues to strengthen brand publicity. We believe that at present, the consumer education in Gujing province has been basically completed, and the secondary high-end products have entered the harvest period. Outside the province, we can rely on “three brands, four flavors and three real estate areas” to focus on secondary high-end products, continue to expand in the area around Anhui, and actively approach the goal of sales within and outside the 14th five year plan province.
“Profit forecast” and “investment forecast” maintenance. Considering the increase in share capital caused by the company’s fixed increase in 2021, we should lower the EPS forecast accordingly. We estimate that the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 12.6 billion / 147 billion / 17.1 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 22% / 17% / 16%; The net profit was 2.4/3/3.6 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30% / 24% / 21%, the corresponding EPS was 4.53/5.65/6.85 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE was 42 / 35 times from 2022 to 2023. It is highly recommended.
Risk tips: the risk of continuous spread of the epidemic, the slowdown in the promotion of new products, and the risk of food quality accidents.
