\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) in January, the output was 218600, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.96% and a month on month increase of – 18.42%; The sales volume was 237200 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.16% and a month on month increase of + 1.52%.
Comments:
The independent sector continued to make efforts, and the sales volume of ai’an doubled year-on-year. Among the independent sectors of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , GAC motor sold 37000 vehicles in January, with a month on month increase of 6.3% / 13.7%. Among them, the main model GS4 sold 14000 vehicles, with a month on month increase of 53.6%, which is the main contributor to GAC motor’s sales. GAC ea’an sold 16000 vehicles in January, an increase of 117.9% / 10.6% month on month, continuing the high growth trend, of which aions / aion y sold more than 6000 vehicles in a single month. The continuous growth of sales volume in ea’an, we believe that the gradual improvement of GAC’s new energy product matrix and the good layout in the fields of magazine battery, high-voltage fast charging and intelligent driving have led to the continuous improvement of brand strength and consumer recognition. At the same time, with the continuous alleviation of core shortage, the undelivered orders accumulated in the previous period have been released. The capacity expansion of gac-e’an plant will be completed in February (at that time, the standard capacity of gac-e’an will be 200000 vehicles / year); At the same time, the second plant being built by the company is planned to be completed and put into operation in December. At that time, GAC ea’an will have an annual production capacity of 400000 vehicles to prepare for the addition of subsequent models.
Japanese brands performed steadily, Guangfeng guangben steadily increased, and the proportion of hybrid increased. GAC Honda produced and sold 75300 / 78500 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 19% / 1.1%. The sales volume of models listed in the second half of last year reached 9215 in January, with a possible monthly sales rate of more than 10000 in the future; Accord, haoying, Binzhi and other main best-selling models still perform steadily; Guangben’s hybrid models sold 12000 vehicles in January. GAC Toyota produced and sold 90900 / 99900 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 14% / 11.3%, a record monthly sales volume. The total sales volume of Camry, Highlander and senna, the main models of Guangfeng, reached 47000 in January, accounting for 46.7% of the total sales volume of Guangfeng; The sales volume of Guangfeng hybrid models reached 26000 in January, a year-on-year increase of + 131%.
Accelerate the move towards the new four modernizations and challenge the sales volume to increase by 15% year-on-year in 2022. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) in 2021, the cumulative sales volume was 2.144 million, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Among them, the independent sections GAC motor and ea’an have entered the channel of rapid development; The joint venture sector gradually eased with the lack of core and entered the recovery stage. In 2022, GAC will accelerate the transformation to the “new four modernizations” and continue to promote comprehensive reform, including state-owned enterprise reform, management innovation, structural adjustment and talent introduction; It is expected to achieve the target of year-on-year growth of 15% in automobile production and sales.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, GAC is expected to maintain a high growth trend independently, and the joint venture brand is expected to continue to recover with the alleviation of core shortage. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 7.21 billion yuan, 10.7 billion yuan and 13.65 billion yuan respectively (considering the reduction of investment in core shortage and R & D, the former value is 8.05 billion yuan, 11.28 billion yuan and 14.64 billion yuan), corresponding to 20 times, 13 times and 11 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the new energy market is less than expected, the recovery of chip supply is less than expected, and the promotion of new models is less than expected
