\u3000\u3000 Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) (002019)
Investment summary
The price of calcium pantothenate API has been gradually raised, and the development company of synthetic biology empowerment has been deeply engaged in the field of calcium pantothenate for more than 20 years, with a leading market share in the world. Affected by the overseas covid-19 epidemic and other factors, calcium pantothenate varieties experienced a low price period for nearly half a year in 2021. Since the third quarter of 2021, the price of calcium pantothenate has increased significantly, which is expected to drive the company’s performance. The cooperation between the company and Amyris, a global leader in synthetic biology, is expected to further enhance the company’s advantages in the API sector and maintain its market leading position.
Innovative pipeline R & D and application were promoted in an orderly manner
In 2021, the company has completed the application for biological product license (BLA) of heavy product under development f-627 in FDA, and has entered the stage of technical review; In September 2021, f-627 was accepted by the European Drug Administration (EMA) for marketing license application (MAA). The marketing application in China is also advancing in an orderly manner. The preparation process verification of Beijing preparation factory is under way. The commercialization cooperation agreement between f-627 and Zhengda Tianqing has been reached, which is expected to open the market with the help of Zhengda Tianqing’s sales ability in the field of cancer. In September 2021, the phase II clinical trial of f-652 slow plus acute liver failure (ACLF) obtained the clinical approval and completed the administration of the first subject in December.
The exclusive preparation of Chinese and Western medicine reflects the differentiated competitive advantage of the company
In 2021, with the development of “531” plan and the increase in the coverage of medical institutions, the company’s exclusive varieties performed well. The annual sales volume of “531” dehumidification and antipruritic ointment exceeded 5 million tubes, and the annual sales volume of Xiaoer Qingqiao granules exceeded 6.9 million boxes. Duanjin detoxification capsule, an innovative traditional Chinese medicine, won the first prize of the science and technology award of the Ministry of public security and is about to enter the phase II clinical trial.
Profit forecast
We expect the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 4.504/64.76/7.317 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.59% / 43.78% / 12.99%; The net profits attributable to the shareholders of the listed company were 277 / 10.91 / 1.321 billion yuan and EPS were 0.22/0.88/1.07 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE from 2021 to 2023, which are 74.62/18.92/15.63 respectively. The business segments of the company developed steadily, the price of API increased significantly, and the innovative drug segment was promoted in an orderly manner. It was covered for the first time and was rated “buy”.
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic risk, R & D less than expected risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, international operation risk, goodwill impairment risk, etc.
