Looking back on the A-share market in the first trading week of the year of the tiger, the gem index performed poorly, while the Shanghai index was relatively resistant to decline. The tracks with new energy, medicine and other funds fell in turns. The “Chinese prefix” stocks took the lead, and the “low price” unpopular theme stocks had a prominent profit-making effect.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the Shanghai Composite Index closed an inverted hammer negative line after four consecutive positives on Friday, showing the willingness to double bottom. The gem index was dragged down by the continuous sharp decline in the direction of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and medicine, and there was no stabilization signal on the technical side. Even if there was an oversold rebound in the short term, it was also a good time for the midline to leave. Operationally it is suggested that investors can properly grasp the direction of growth stocks, especially the oversold rebound opportunity of blue chip technology themes; It is recommended to wait for stepping back before paying attention to the direction of underestimated value .
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the market trend was weak last Friday, with more than 4000 stocks floating green, and the volume of the two cities can be expanded. The market style is biased towards blue chips, large financial support index, and pharmaceutical stocks have become the main force in the market. Considering the sustained efforts of the steady growth policy, is expected to stabilize the market in shock, and pay attention to the gains and losses of the annual line and the rotation of the sector . In terms of operation, it is suggested to pay attention to finance, household appliances, coal, building materials, building decoration and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that it is currently in the period of repeated bottom grinding and is in the stage of strategic layout in the medium and long term. The current A shares are still in a period of shock and repeated bottom grinding. the adjustment of the boom track of the overvalued A-share market is a “cold spring” after the general rise in the early stage. Many factors restricting the strength of the A-share market need to be gradually digested .
According to the further analysis of the agency, for a long time, A-Shares are in the strategic layout stage . First, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment and short-term violent venting, the risk has been fully released; Second, the long-term sound and positive trend of China’s economy remains unchanged. At present, it is in the transmission period from wide currency to wide credit, and the follow-up steady growth policy is expected to gradually strengthen; Third, from the forecast of annual reports of listed companies, there are many structural highlights in the profits of A-share enterprises.
In terms of configuration, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) mentioned that pays attention to two main investment lines: first, the policy of “steady growth” configures varieties, such as “banking, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ” and so on. In terms of theme, focus on “new energy (vehicle), digital economy, seed industry”, etc. .
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that at present, the rotation and style switching of the A-share market sector are more obvious , the overvalued growth sector has entered the adjustment stage, and the “steady growth” boost, undervalued repair and digital economy theme have become new capital hotspots. At present, there is still room for the undervalued sector with high prosperity, so it is suggested to focus on it.
First of all, under the background of great uncertainty overseas and the great downward pressure on China’s economy as a whole, some overvalued growth track stocks still have low allocation cost performance, which is easy to “resonate” in the process of overseas asset price revaluation, resulting in large selling pressure in the short term, and then large fluctuations .
Secondly, the “steady growth” this time puts more emphasis on structural adjustment. The upward space of traditional cycle industries is relatively limited . It is expected that the “defensive” opportunity of the “123567” sector and the “defensive” opportunity of the “123567} sector are expected to emerge under the” anti cyclical “adjustment trend, and the” 123567} sector is expected to have a higher potential to improve the market.
Macroscopically, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that the growth rate of new social finance in January has become positive and will gradually enter the upward cycle, which is conducive to improving investors’ pessimistic expectations of profits, which is one of the important conditions for the previous bottoms of a shares. As 2022 is a stable growth year, the growth rate of new social finance is expected to continue to rise, forming a positive support for a shares. After the Fed’s interest rate hike and other external factors affecting risk appetite are gradually implemented, A-Shares are expected to return to the upward cycle. still maintain the judgment of “√” trend of A-Shares throughout the year, “undervalued +”, and “depression strategy” is still the current dominant allocation strategy . From February to March, we can focus on the opportunities of industrial metals, petroleum and petrochemical, cement and so on, which benefit from the force of steady growth and the continuous rise of bulk prices.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) also said that does not need to be overly pessimistic about the Chinese market. Historically, under the background of relatively low market and low expectation, there have been more than expected credit and social finance increments. The cycle from two to three months has a positive impact on the market. If these indicators have a certain sustainability, it will be more obvious, The improvement of forward-looking indicators is conducive to the improvement of growth expectations . In terms of style, we believe that “steady growth” is still the main line of the future stage, the space for sharp decline in growth style may be relatively limited, but we may not be in a hurry to bottom .
In terms of operation strategy, the organization further analyzed that the steady growth style may continue, and the manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround. 1) areas potentially supported by marginal policy changes or efforts , including infrastructure, industrial chains related to stable demand for real estate (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), brokerage finance, etc; 2) In 2021, middle and lower reaches consumption has been adjusted, the valuation is not high, and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear. Stock selection from bottom to top includes household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, the Internet, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, etc; 3) Under the background of positive progress of the epidemic, aviation airport, catering tourism, offline entertainment and other sectors may receive periodic attention ; 4) the manufacturing growth sector with a large increase last year, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has been adjusted, but it may not be the time to fully intervene.
In addition, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) mentioned that undervalued blue chips still adhere to three main lines : 1) securities companies ; 2) central enterprises with high dividends related to national reform, especially: the development direction of central finance such as railway and electric power; 3) green power . At the same time, some drugs related to the epidemic, such as ventilator and vaccine, have also entered the allocation range.
Guosheng Securities believes that it is still necessary to control the overall position before the effective upward breakthrough in the market, which is suitable for low absorption, “steady growth” and “post epidemic era” will become the main logic driving the operation of the market . It pays attention to traditional infrastructure such as building materials, as well as undervalued sectors such as bank insurance. It is suggested to properly layout the digital economy, central enterprise reform Tourism, hotel, air transportation and other theme sections.
