One week after the opening of the market in February, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750. SZ) shares plunged more than 17%. Whether the trillion “ningwang” fell sharply this time or fell out of the buying opportunity has become the focus of the market. At present, the views of various sellers are quite different. Some sing loudly and copy the bottom, while others shout that there is still room for decline.
After three and a half years of listing, the stock price has risen 20 times and the total market value has exceeded trillion yuan, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) seized the opportunity of the “from 0 to 1” stage of the new energy vehicle industry, and rapidly grew into a benchmark enterprise in the field of power batteries through the “two sharp tools” of scale effect and vertical integration of the battery industry chain.
At present, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is facing challenges one after another. Both new and old players of power battery are catching up, and the performance contribution ability in the field of power exchange has yet to be verified. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) the future stock price trend depends on its internal value, which tests the sustainability of the company’s performance growth, the “ability to defend the country” under the competition pattern of the industrial chain, the R & D ability of technology iteration, etc.
It is worth mentioning that at the noon of February 13, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) issued a solemn statement on its official wechat “catl Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) “, saying that recently, a series of malicious rumors, such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) being sanctioned by the United States, being excluded from the gem weight index and collapsing with Tesla, have caused misunderstanding and misinterpretation in the market and affected the corporate reputation. The rumors are groundless and bad in nature, The company reported the case to the public security organ on the 12th and will investigate the legal responsibility of the rumor mongers according to law.
is the share price expensive? Does it have potential?
According to the financial report and performance forecast, in 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) total revenue and net profit attributable to parent company exceeded 100 billion yuan and 14 billion yuan respectively. The brightest performance is the past, and the focus of the market is the sustainability of the rapid growth of the company’s performance.
The effective capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the first three quarters of 2021 is 106gwh. According to the announcement, the company expects the planned capacity to be 750gwh by 2025, or more than three times the effective capacity of 2021.
The growth rate and space of downstream demand are the fundamental factors that determine the growth of enterprises in all links of the industrial chain. Previously, the new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) pointed out that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for 20% of the total vehicle sales.
The first financial reporter combed the forecast data reported by evvolumes and several securities companies. Most institutions generally predict that the global sales range of new energy passenger vehicles in 2025 will be 16 million ~ 18 million. Based on the average charging capacity of a single electric vehicle of 60wh, the total consumption required is about 1000gwh.
In terms of market share, the global market share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in 2021 is 32.6%. Assuming that in 2025, the market share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will rise to 40% and 50% respectively, with corresponding shipments of 400gwh and 500gwh.
Without considering any other factors, based on the profit of 80 million yuan / GWH, the net profit scale of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in 2025 is about 32 billion ~ 40 billion yuan.
Under the above optimistic assumptions, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has passed the initial stage of growth and entered the mature stage. If the company can maintain the annual compound growth rate of revenue and net profit of about 30% ~ 35%, it will be valued at 30 times, and the corresponding total market value may not exceed 1.2 trillion yuan.
As of the latest closing date, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) shares were reported at 489.99 yuan, with a total market value of 1.14 trillion.
will second-line power battery enterprises change the industrial chain pattern
In recent years, with the guidance of regulatory policies and the continuous iteration of technology, the new energy vehicle industry has continued to develop at a high speed. As the core component, the power battery industry has unlimited scenery, the market is in short supply and capital is pouring in.
As the investment and construction of power battery production line requires high capital expenditure and corresponding complete cost of technology research and development, most vehicle manufacturers choose stable battery suppliers in the early stage, which provides development opportunities for power battery manufacturers.
After landing in the capital market in 2018, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) takes the battery business as the core and builds its own battery industry chain through the logic of capital. The company is well aware that the guarantee of supply chain such as raw materials is the premise of large-scale expansion. It arranges the upstream and downstream of the battery industry chain by means of a series of investment and acquisition, involving energy storage, lithium battery materials, lithium battery intelligent equipment manufacturing, charging and replacement Automatic driving, and even chip, semiconductor and other subdivided fields.
The fund-raising actions and scale of the company in the three years since its listing are rarely “comparable” within the scope of a shares. In June 2018, the company went public and raised 5.352 billion yuan. A year and a half later, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) raised 19.618 billion yuan by non-public offering. In the second half of last year, a huge fixed growth plan of 45 billion yuan was released.
Deep binding of downstream key customers is an important reason for the high growth of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) performance. Among them, from the fourth quarter of 2020, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is officially equipped with Tesla standard endurance version, and Tesla’s installed capacity proportion in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has increased from 5% to 24%; In 2021, the new power of car manufacturing gradually grew into Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) major core customers.
According to the Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) Research Report, Tesla is the largest customer of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in 2021, benefiting from the large volume of Tesla lithium iron phosphate model 3. Tesla has 13.91gwh of packaged machines, accounting for 18.7%; The second largest customer is Weilai automobile, with supporting 6.36gwh, accounting for 8.6%; The third largest customer is Xiaopeng automobile, with supporting 5.49gwh, accounting for 7.4%; Followed by SAIC, ideal, Geely, FAW and other leading vehicle brands. The TOC end market has a high growth and its advantages are still obvious.
The China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery market has formed a competition pattern of one super and many strong ones, including Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Ruipu energy, China Innovation airlines, honeycomb energy, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and many other second-line battery manufacturers are vigorously expanding their production. Among them, the planned production capacity of China Innovation Airlines by 2025 is 500gwh.
“From 2017 to 2019, Ningde’s market share increased significantly, while the market share of second-line battery enterprises decreased. Since 2020, the growth rate of power battery demand has exceeded market expectations. Although Ningde’s market share is also increasing and a considerable part of the production capacity of Byd Company Limited(002594) needs to be provided by itself, the production capacity of head enterprises alone is far from covering the market demand, driving the rapid growth of the share of second-line battery manufacturers.” A new energy industry analyst told the first financial reporter that “compared with the head enterprises, the main engine factory and the second-line battery factory have a stronger voice in cooperation, and can drive and cultivate suppliers according to their own needs, which is also the reason for the sudden emergence of some second-level battery factories”.
Liu Chao (pseudonym), a person in charge of a Japanese automobile supplier, told reporters, “with the passage of time, the scale of the electric vehicle market continues to expand, especially the intellectualization has entered the substantive development stage, the demand scale of the current mainstream battery technology will double, and the products of second-line battery manufacturers will be recognized by more and more main engine manufacturers.”
In the short and medium term, the possibility of second-rate battery factory shaking Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is very small, but compared with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , second-line battery enterprises pay more attention to R & D investment. According to the financial report, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) the average annual compound growth rate of R & D investment from 2016 to 2020 was 28%, which matched the rapid growth of its operating revenue.
In comparison, the average annual compound growth rate of R & D investment of second tier manufacturers from 2016 to 2020 was 69.3%, 44.1%, 42.6%, 28.6% and 8.6%.
\u3000\u3000 “With the continuous evolution of battery structure, secondary battery enterprises with multiple structures can cope with the impact of battery structure changes and promote business development. However, this is a differentiated technology, not a subversive technology. For example, solid-state battery is an important direction of power battery development in the future, and major power battery enterprises have made technical layout in this field, which is a new technology The first mover advantage may become the key to future competition. ” The aforementioned analyst said.
