Overview of meso boom Issue 9: steady growth drives upward growth of cycle boom and deepening differentiation of consumer financial structure

Consumption sector: the boom of new energy vehicles continues; Mandatory consumer goods boom; The boom of optional consumer goods such as small household appliances declined

Boom improvement: the boom of new energy vehicles continues; Household boom is still high; Condiments and chicken improved. Some auto companies disclosed data in January that the sales of new energy vehicles still maintained a doubling growth. Sales of home building materials maintained a high growth rate in December. Cost transmission, seasoning price index continued to rise year-on-year. Chicken prices have risen rapidly since December.

Stable prosperity: the prosperity of dairy products and wheat remains high; The Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) boom of Baijiu, beer, soybean and corn maintained relatively high. The prosperity of kitchen electricity, automobile, commerce and textile and clothing maintains the historical center. The retail price of milk in dairy products rose. Shang Chao and electric business increased the amount of high-end Baijiu, and Baijiu prices remained stable. Before the festival, the price of beer leveled off and the output increased seasonally. Soybean, corn and other Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices fell slightly. The sales of kitchen appliances in December fell slightly year-on-year and maintained positive growth. The year-on-year growth rate of vehicle sales has improved. The epidemic broke out point by point, offline consumption was restrained, and the sales of social retail and textile clothing fell slightly in December.

Boom downturn: the boom of large and small household appliances is under pressure; The ex factory price of papermaking (corrugated paper) decreased slightly; Pork prices continued to fall. Sales of large household appliances continued to fall in December. Sales of small household appliances fell sharply in December. The prices of some paper mills fell slightly. In December, the growth rate of commercial pig slaughter picked up again, and the pig price continued to fluctuate and fall.

\u3000\u3000? Growth sector: semiconductor and lithium battery boom; Rising prosperity of communication equipment manufacturers; The box office of Spring Festival films is weak; Wind power, MLCC, LCD panel under pressure

Boom improvement: the boom of semiconductors and lithium batteries continued to rise; The prosperity of communication equipment manufacturers has improved. In December, the year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor equipment shipments in North America continued to expand, and the year-on-year growth rate of TSMC’s revenue increased significantly. In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles and the installed capacity of batteries continued to be high year-on-year, and the downstream demand continued to promote the high prosperity pattern of the lithium battery industry chain. The boom of communication equipment increased significantly in December, among which the output of base station equipment increased significantly year-on-year.

The boom is stable: the boom of mobile phones, operators, software, photovoltaic, games and short videos remains relatively high; Integrated video boom maintenance center. Mobile phone shipments continued to grow at a higher rate. The total number of users of operators increased slightly. The year-on-year growth rate of software business income expanded slightly. The game continued to grow at a higher rate.

Boom downturn: the boom margin of film, wind power, MLCC and LCD panel fell. The box office performance of films in the Spring Festival is weak, and their reputation has also declined. The year-on-year growth rate of MLCC Taiwan stock revenue continued to decline, and the year-on-year growth rate in December has dropped to about 0. In January, the price of 55 inch LCD TV panel continued to fall, with weak demand and procurement.

Cycle sector: the boom of energy, metals and some chemicals has improved; The prosperity of transportation, building materials, power generation and construction machinery is under pressure

Prosperity improvement: the prosperity of tin, nickel and lithium has strengthened at a high level; The boom of crude oil, aluminum, steel, PTA, nuclear power, coal, ethylene, propylene and iron ore has risen. The prices of tin, nickel, lithium, aluminum and other metals rose further due to supply shortages, the power of steady growth policies, and the booming downstream sales of new energy vehicles. Geopolitical tensions in energy supply areas, coupled with the shortage of energy supply due to climate reasons, the spot price of crude oil has continued to rise rapidly, reaching nearly US $100 a barrel. Coal prices rose again. The commencement after the festival is imminent, the project goods preparation, the operating rate of steel mills has rebounded sharply, and the steel price has risen. At the same time, superimposed on the impact of supply, the iron ore price has also soared. The rise in oil prices has driven up the prices of some oil chemicals such as PTA, ethylene and propylene.

Prosperity: stable and high price of titanium powder; MDI and urea prices are stable at a high position; The boom of precious metals, general automatic equipment, glass and gas has stabilized; Water reducing agent and airport aviation boom are stable at a low position.

Boom: building materials, water and fire power generation projects. Export freight rates fell at a high level and domestic trade fell significantly. Airport Air passenger traffic continued to fall. Express Logistics revenue changed from positive to negative year-on-year after the double 11. Cement prices continued to fall. The year-on-year decline of hydropower and thermal power generation has expanded. The year-on-year decline in excavator sales and operating hours in December is still large.

\u3000\u3000? Financial sector: the insurance boom is beginning to improve weakly; The real estate boom continues to be weak; Brokerage boom weakened

In December, the premium income of insurance enterprises continued to expand, and the boom began to improve weakly.

The year-on-year growth rate of medium and long-term loans of banks and enterprises continued to slow down, and the boom was basically maintained.

In real estate, the national housing boom index continued to weaken in December, and the floor profit turned negative year-on-year. On January 30, the transaction area of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities improved seasonally month on month, but the year-on-year growth rate was still low, and the housing price continued to fall year-on-year.

Securities companies, the recent market transactions are cold, the trading volume has broken trillion, the average daily turnover has declined year-on-year, and the boom has weakened.

- Advertisment -