In the first week of the year of the Tiger Trading, compared with the continuous rebound of our Hong Kong stocks and overseas markets, A-Shares feel weak and tepid. This week, social finance and other January financial data were released, and the seller’s institutions cheered. Finally, the index was still calm, and the rise / fall ratio was not satisfactory.
From the expected cross year market before the year to the intensified differentiation after the festival, the overall turnover of the market is shrinking, and the gem index is falling continuously in the new low of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . The reality of the backbone reflects the internal problems of the current market. Before the festival, we once mentioned the market’s concerns about the economy and liquidity. With the continuous increase of “stable growth” in the festival, the economic concerns have calmed down in the short term, and the liquidity seems to be facing a turnaround after the introduction of financial data. Why is the market still weak at this time?
We believe that the biggest crux of the year of the tiger transaction so far is the structural adjustment of funds in the field. In short, it is the end of the stage of track investment style caused by the decline of the voice of equity funds led by public offering to the market. The new funds in the field in the future have not been clear, the market has no backbone, and the mainstream funds are trapped in the track, and it takes time for the ship to turn around.
As for the new energy stocks led by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , they are facing flight and trampling after the crowded track. The investment style led by the track has become the main voice of public offering in the market under the background of financial moving. However, regardless of the purchase price, the new funds of fund holders will be used as a tray for old stocks. When the liquidity is difficult to follow, the net value will fall rapidly and the position will rise passively, The final redemption triggered partial stampede. Whether such a model is beneficial to the market and whether it can form a virtuous circle for the long-term development of the fund is worth reassessing by the industry.
Last year, with the adjustment of consumer medicine stocks, a group of 20-year-old star fund managers fell from the altar, and many people have been scolded so far; At the beginning of the year of the tiger, new energy continued to decline. I’m afraid many fund managers will be scolded by Jimin this year. As the most professional buyer team with the highest education and the most resources in China, can they conscientiously maintain a sense of normality and rationally view the ranking while calling the wind and rain in the market, and take care of the assets of the holders like their own lives, This is probably the core of whether the fund industry can really be recognized by the foundation in the future.
The opening of the year of the tiger is not as expected, which has continuously slapped the market, which also proves the particularity and complexity of the environment this year. However, at this time, we want to say that the investment in the year of the tiger still hides small surprises under the ordinary heart, “steady growth” and “post epidemic era” will be the key words of this year.
(the author is the director of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Shanghai Research)
