In the first week after the opening of the lunar year of the tiger, the global stock market did not show the trend of “tiger vitality”, but showed a general decline pattern. The three major stock indexes of U.S. stocks closed down, and European stock markets also fell on Friday. In the A-share market, only the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.02% in the first week, and both the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index fell to varying degrees. At the same time, it is worrying that 49 stocks will be lifted next week, with a total market value of 250.36 billion yuan. Can spring market come? Once again, it has become a hot topic among all parties.
market review this week
1. Stock market
A-share market:
This week (February 7-11, the same below) is the first week of trading in the year of the tiger. The three indexes rose and fell each other, showing a pattern of strong Shanghai and deep weakness. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02% to 3462.95 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 0.78% to 13224.38 points; The gem index fell 5.59% to 2746.38 points.
From the perspective of shenwanyi industry, 25 industries rose during this week, with the coal industry rising by 13.86%, ranking the first, followed by petroleum and Petrochemical (7.98%), building decoration (7.85%) and building materials (7.02%). In addition, this week, the power equipment industry fell by 8.18%, while electronics and pharmaceutical biology fell by 3.32% and 2.73% respectively.
This week, northbound funds showed a net buying trend for four trading days, with a total net buying amount of 10.744 billion yuan, including a net inflow of 17.354 billion yuan during the Shanghai Stock connect and a net outflow of 6.610 billion yuan from the Shenzhen Stock connect. In terms of the top ten traded stocks, this week, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) received the largest net purchase amount, reaching 3.131 billion yuan, followed by two stocks such as China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , with net purchase amounts exceeding 2 billion yuan, 1.391 billion yuan and 2.23 billion yuan respectively. In terms of net sales, this week, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was significantly sold, with a net sales amount of 1.988 billion yuan.
Table : Trading of top 10 active stocks traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect this week (February 7-11)
A total of 3 new shares were listed in the A-share market this week. AsiaInfo security, which was listed on February 9, increased by 27.53% on the first day; The first day gains of Sanyuan biology and Dongwei semi guide listed on February 10 were 17.12% and 0.08% respectively. Based on this calculation, the three new shares listed this week increased by an average of 14.91% on the first day.
According to the issuance arrangement, four new shares will be listed next week (February 14-18). Among them, there are 1 Beijing stock exchange, 2 Gem and 1 Shenzhen main board. It is noteworthy that next Tuesday’s Hongxi technology is the second new share in the year of the tiger of the Beijing stock exchange, known as the “king of digital accessories”; Han Zu CNC, the new share of gem next Wednesday, is the holding subsidiary of “laser Mao” Han’S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) and the leader of PCB (printed circuit board) equipment manufacturers in China.
It is noteworthy that 49 stocks will be lifted next week, with a total lifting amount of 5.14 billion shares. According to the latest closing price, the total lifting market value is 250.36 billion yuan. Specifically, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has the largest lifting scale, with a lifting market value of 168.4 billion yuan, followed by Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) and other individual shares, with a lifting amount of more than 10 billion yuan.
Hong Kong Stock Market:
This week, the Hong Kong stock market was weak and volatile, rising and falling. The Hang Seng Index closed at 24906.66 points, up 1.36% this week; Hang Seng technology index rose 0.28% in the week; The Hang Seng state-owned enterprises index rose 2.33% week on week.
overseas market:
On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down. The Dow fell 1.43% to 34738.06 points, and the S & P 500 index fell 1.9% to 4418.64 points. The index fell 3.7% in two days, the largest two-day decline since October 2020, and the NASDAQ fell 2.78% to 13791.15 points. This week, the Dow fell 1.0%, the S & P 500 fell 1.82% and the NASDAQ fell 2.18%.
On Friday, European stocks closed lower across the board. Germany’s DAX index fell 0.42% to 15425.12 points, France’s CAC40 index fell 1.27% to 7011.6 points, Britain’s FTSE 100 index fell 0.15% to 7661.02 points, and Italy’s FTSE MIB index fell 0.82% to 26966.1 points. This week, European stocks rose collectively. Germany’s DAX index rose 2.16%, France’s CAC40 index rose 0.87%, Britain’s FTSE 100 index rose 1.92% and Italy’s FTSE MIB index rose 1.36%.
On Friday, all major Asia Pacific stock markets closed lower. The South Korean composite index fell 0.87% to 2747.71 points, down 0.09% this week; Australia’s S S & P 200 index fell 0.98% to 7217.30 points, up 1.36% this week; New Zealand nzx50 index fell 1.93% to 12173.78 points, down 0.86% this week.
2. Bond market
On Friday, the yield of US bonds fell across the board. The yield of three-month US bonds fell 4.4 basis points to 0.365%, the yield of two-year US bonds fell 7.2 basis points to 1.488%, the yield of three-year US bonds fell 8.6 basis points to 1.715%, the yield of five-year US bonds fell 11.2 basis points to 1.833%, the yield of 10-year US bonds fell 11.1 basis points to 1.918%, and the yield of 30-year US bonds fell 6.8 basis points to 2.234%.
In China, treasury bond futures closed down significantly, with 10-year main contracts down 0.44%, the biggest decline in nearly four months and a weekly decline of 0.65%; The five-year main contract fell 0.37%, the largest decline in nearly a year and a half, and the weekly decline was 0.51%.
3. Foreign exchange
Late Friday in New York, the US dollar index rose 0.37% to 96.03. The performance of non US currencies was divided. The euro fell 0.69% to 1.1350 against the US dollar, the pound rose 0.01% to 1.3562 against the US dollar, the Australian dollar fell 0.46% to 0.7135 against the US dollar, the US dollar fell 0.53% to 115.38 against the Japanese yen and the US dollar fell 0.01% to 0.9253 against the Swiss franc.
On Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 6.3592 against the US dollar at 16:30, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day and up 44 basis points this week. On the same day, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.3681, down 82 basis points and hit a new low since January 28, with a cumulative increase of 65 basis points this week.
4. Bulk commodities
This week, Comex gold futures rose 2.92% and Comex silver futures rose 5.01%.
This week, the US oil contract rose 1.72% in March and the oil distribution contract rose 1.85% in April.
This week, LME copper fell 0.12%, LME zinc rose 1.19%, LME nickel rose 1.06%, LME aluminum rose 4.07%, LME tin rose 1.81% and LME lead rose 4.57%.
institutional investment view
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : since 2021, the rise and fall of major industries in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have been out of sync, with one ebb and flow, so the index fluctuated. Under the background of the era of equity investment, allocated funds will enter the market. It is expected that the supply and demand of A-share funds will be balanced in 2022 to support the shock market. The steady growth spring market will not be absent. In terms of structure, value first and then growth, such as undervalued financial real estate, new energy and digital economy of new infrastructure.
At present, investors are most concerned about whether the spring Market in 2022 exists. According to the analysis of Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , generally speaking, the doubts about the spring market are mainly due to two concerns: one is that it is difficult for policies to hedge the downward pressure of macro-economy, and the other is that the micro capital is no longer abundant at the beginning of the year.
The agency said that the spring market will not be absent. There are three specific reasons: first, from the review of the spring market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the spring market usually occurs every year. The reason behind this is that the end of the year and the beginning of the year are often the time window for major meetings. At the same time, there is little disclosure of fundamental data of A-Shares from November last year to March this year, and the capital interest rate usually falls at the beginning of the year, so the risk preference of investors at the beginning of the year is relatively higher. Second, since the July 30 Politburo meeting, the strength of the steady growth policy is gradually increasing. The central economic work conference in December 2021 required that the economic work in 2022 should be stable and make progress in stability. All regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy, and all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, with appropriate policy force. Drawing lessons from history, with the strengthening of steady growth policy, the market will perform well. Third, the current roe is still in the recovery cycle. This round of all A-share ROE (TTM) bottomed out in 20q2 and began to recover in 20q3. So far, it has only lasted for five quarters. With the development of the wide credit policy, the rise of roe is expected to continue to 22q1.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) : at present, the two cities reproduce the “February 8” pattern, some large market heavyweights are obviously sought after by hedge funds, and the market style is quietly changing. It is suggested that investors abandon the high to the low, avoid the growth leading varieties with high decline, and pay careful attention to the possible investment opportunities of undervalued large cap heavyweights in the future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in policy, capital and external market. It is expected that the Shanghai index is more likely to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and the GEM market is more likely to continue to explore and seek support in the short term.
Chuancai Securities: in the future, from the perspective of valuation, the valuation of new energy, semiconductor and other directions has entered a relatively reasonable valuation range in the medium and long term. In addition, the continuous rise in the yield of 10-year US bonds has suppressed technology stocks to a certain extent, but it has fully responded to the Fed’s interest rate increase, and the future rise is expected to be relatively limited, However, in the short term, it is still disturbed by the expectation of interest rate increase, fund redemption, lower than expected performance of some enterprises and other risks.
