Last week, the trend of the three major A-share indexes was significantly differentiated: the Shanghai stock index rebounded by 3.03% in a single week, while the gem index represented by the growth sector continued to callback, with a decline of 5.59% in the whole week.
The net inflow of northbound funds last week was 10.744 billion yuan, but the differentiation of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect was also obvious: the net inflow of Shanghai Stock connect was 17.354 billion yuan and the net outflow of Shenzhen Stock connect was 6.61 billion yuan.
For the adjustment of growth style since the beginning of the year, institutional views agree that the external factors squeezing growth valuation have not been completely removed, and it still takes time to adjust investors' risk appetite under the background of the lack of short-term positive catalyst. The second quarter or the time inflection point of growth style repair.
When will the growth track stop falling?
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) Wang Hanfeng's strategy team believes that the large increase in the early stage, high valuation and expectation, not low position and the relative lack of upward catalyst in the short term may be the main internal reasons for the adjustment of the growth sector. At the same time, the four seasons report of public funds shows that the holdings of active partial equity funds are concentrated in some growth tracks, and the recent position adjustment may form a certain negative feedback with the fluctuation of stock price.
In terms of capital, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the new issuance of the fund has been less than expected since the new year, and there was no "good start" of the new issuance of the fund in January. In terms of applying for redemption of stock funds, there is no "redemption tide" of retail funds, but there is a certain redemption pressure on institutional funds, and the liquidity pressure on the growth track is still large.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that the current adjustment range of growth stocks may have been large, but the adjustment of investors' risk appetite still needs time under the background of the lack of short-term positive catalyst. In addition, overseas markets are also reflecting the impact of global monetary tightening, restricting the performance of the global overvalued growth sector.
Therefore China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) it is judged that the market style will gradually have the conditions to return to the growth style until China's growth expectation is gradually stable and the overseas market responds to monetary tightening to a certain extent. It is preliminarily estimated that the time point may be around the beginning of the second quarter, and the follow-up needs to be continuously updated according to the actual progress.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is also predicted that the growth track is expected to usher in system repair in the second quarter: the current transformation of market style from growth to value will last for at least one quarter, and the growth track is expected to pick up after the three conditions are complete in the second quarter. the three conditions are: first, the scarcity of high growth track performance needs to be further verified in the quarterly report disclosure period in April; Second, we need to wait for the specific rate increase range and subsequent statements of the Federal Reserve in March; Third, we should also observe the position of public offering at the end of the first quarter, that is, after this round of "high cut low" transactions, whether the follow-up growth track has been fully adjusted and how the public offering configuration needs to be verified.
what is the impact of overseas monetary policy?
Since the lunar new year, the focus of the market is also the process of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Last week, the US January CPI rose to 7.5% year-on-year higher than expected, and the yield of 10-year US bonds exceeded 2%. This news has greatly aroused the market's expectation that the Fed will accelerate the tightening of monetary policy.
Judging from the Fed's speech on interest rate hike in March and March, Powell's team believed that the Fed's interest rate hike was basically held in June. Although the market still has differences on the range of the first interest rate increase, the market expectation of interest rate increase continued to strengthen after the release of US inflation data in January. as of February 4, the market expects the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in March to be 66%; After the release of inflation data, the market expected the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March to 49%.
However, the Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) strategy team stressed that under the phased dislocation of China US monetary policy in the first half of the year, the impact of peripheral monetary tightening on A-Shares is mainly at the emotional level, and the actual impact is limited.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that overseas disturbances may affect the rhythm of foreign capital's additional allocation of a shares, but do not change the trend of additional allocation. First of all, the scale of foreign capital inflow decreased in January this year, but it still maintained a net inflow.
Secondly, foreign capital's preference for RMB asset allocation has increased, which is due to the fact that China's market environment of "low inflation + leniency policy + reasonable equity valuation" in 2022 is still better than the combination of "high inflation + tight policy + high equity valuation" in European and American developed markets, and better than most emerging economies with high inflation and weak growth.
Finally, despite the significant adjustment of A-Shares in January, the application and redemption behind the northbound funds are relatively stable. According to EIKON's statistics, overseas China funds maintained a large range of net subscription in the three weeks before the Spring Festival.
How long will the style "high and low cut" last?
In terms of specific configuration, after continuous adjustment, has the cost performance of track type companies improved? Will the recovery of undervalued stocks last throughout the year? There are significant differences in the views of this institution.
Chen Xianshun's strategy team of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities said that the excess return of the market in the next stage will come from the marginal change at the molecular end. At present, investors should focus on the direction of early profit damage and valuation repair power, especially the direction of profit reversal or marginal improvement. The undervalued sector with consumption and infrastructure chain as the core has the above advantages. In the future, the market will still flow to the lower position and accelerate the switching to the undervalued style.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) also made clear that blue chip is the main style of A-Shares throughout 2022. Since the new year, China's policy focus has been on steady growth, and the main line of relevant investment is sustainable. The rise of the corresponding low value blue chip is still an important style feature of the A-share market in the future, and the system repair of the growth track still needs to wait.
Wang Jun's strategic team of BOCI Securities held different views. Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) said that the relative strength of the recent value style does not come from the comparative advantage of performance, but from policy arbitrage and the squeeze of the market on valuation. In other words, the advantage of value is set off by the disadvantage of growth. The market switching is a passive response to the increase of income gap, rather than optimistic about the sector from the performance trend.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) believes that the external factors squeezing the growth valuation have not been removed. However, for investors with long-term focus and light constraints, on the premise of unchanged performance trend, the left layout of current growth technology is becoming more and more prominent. For investors pursuing relative returns, reducing positions and switching are both expedient measures. Once the subsequent mood turns better, technology breakthrough is still one of the best choices.
