The recent trend of A-Shares has worried many investors, and there are many discussions on whether A-Shares are adjusted in place.
Since the beginning of this year, there have been continuous adjustments in the A-share market. After several days of recovery, the stock market fell again on February 11. As of February 11, among the main broad-based indexes, the gem index had been adjusted more, with a cumulative decline of 17.34%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 6.86% and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.86%.
As the second largest institutional investor in a shares, how do insurance fund investors view the current market trend? Chinese reporters from securities companies interviewed a number of insurance fund investors, many of whom are cautiously optimistic about the short-term A-share market trend. From the perspective of the trend of the whole year, the index range is expected to fluctuate, still dominated by structural opportunities.
cautiously optimistic about the market trend
In an interview with reporters, a large insurance asset manager pointed out that from the perspective of fundamentals, in the process of continuous decline some time ago, the negative concerns of the market were mainly concentrated in the following three aspects: first, they were worried that China’s steady growth fell short of expectations, the effect of credit easing was poor, and the subsequent profit was falsified; Second, it is worried that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy too quickly and the overseas liquidity pressure will be transmitted to China; Third, it is worried that the market incremental funds at the micro level are insufficient, and the negative feedback of funds is formed in the process of decline.
In addition, some heavyweight stocks in the pharmaceutical and power equipment industries were significantly adjusted by multiple negative effects, which dragged down the performance of the index.
The person believes that there is a window period of oversold rebound brought by the repair of risk appetite in the market after the Spring Festival. In the follow-up, with the implementation of China’s expected policies, it is expected that the market will gradually reverse the pessimism and turn to the positive again.
The driving factors include the obvious strength of credit supply in late January, the gradual digestion of the maximum market volatility caused by the expected guidance of overseas monetary policy, the deterministic relaxation cycle of China’s monetary policy, and the obvious signal of “stabilizing the market”.
According to the analysis of insurance asset managers, the main reason for market fluctuations in recent times is that there are many stop loss orders of absolute return, represented by fixed income + and some private placement and absolute return orders of self operated funds. Generally, if an absolute return product falls below 10% at the beginning of the year, there is a strong stop loss pressure.
“The market may fluctuate in the short term. After the Spring Festival, it continued to fall and fell so much, exceeding expectations.” The source said that this is related to the structure of the chip structure. In the past two years, the market has been pursuing the characteristics of the track. The theme fund of the industry track has strong ability to absorb gold. Once the industry track is in question or negative cycle, for example, the Baijiu, medicine, the current photovoltaic and new energy source vehicles, the trend is to go to the track and the chips should be dispersed.
The head of a small insurance asset management company expressed cautious optimism and believed that there was limited room for short-term decline. “There are many internal and external disturbance factors in the market in the short term, forming a certain pressure, but it will pass, and the trend of the market is confirming this.” The source said.
“For the market, we should be cautious, but the overall situation is optimistic. The policies are increasing in succession, and the social finance has exceeded expectations. The follow-up policies should be expected.” Another medium-sized insurance asset management executive said.
He believes that the current stage should be understood as the process of grinding the bottom. Both the long and short sides of the market and the internal and external forces have not reached an agreement, so it can not be defined as the rebound of volatility. From the perspective of funds, in fact, external funds are already abundant. You don’t have to worry too much about the departure of funds, but there are large differences between long and short funds in the venue.
“The decline since the beginning of the year, for many insurance funds, the opportunity is greater than the risk. Because insurance funds have a steady stream of long-term funds, which is equivalent to a large position space at the beginning of the year, you can wait patiently for market opportunities. For some short-term funds, especially those with small position space, it is more embarrassing now.” He further said.
For the market trend, there are also many differences among insurance institutions. A person in charge of investment of a small insurance company believes that the market trend is not clear and needs to be observed again. The person in charge of another large insurance asset management investment said that the market is expected to bottom up, but there is still downward pressure again in the follow-up.
this year is still dominated by structural opportunities
Referring to the market trend and investment opportunities this year, a large insurance asset manager said that he was not pessimistic about the equity market this year. It is difficult for the market to have obvious index opportunities. It is expected that the index range will fluctuate and still focus on structural opportunities. In addition, considering the valuation factors, there is still an opportunity for a restorative rise in the Hong Kong stock market.
The source believes that in the medium and long term, it is also relatively optimistic about the equity market. First, from the perspective of global competition, sustainable development in China; Second, it is the general trend for residents’ wealth to enter the capital market; Third, China’s industrial transformation and consumption upgrading are advancing steadily, and more and more excellent enterprises will emerge; Fourth, the valuation of A-Shares is relatively attractive from the international horizontal comparison.
In mid January this year, the “2022 China Insurance Investment Officer survey” conducted by the securities times showed similar results. The survey shows that for this year’s market trend, 63.64% of investment officers hold a neutral attitude towards the investment prospect in 2022, 27.27% hold a pessimistic attitude, and another 9.09% choose “relatively optimistic”. Many investment officials believe that the key to investment in 2022 is to grasp structural opportunities.
At present, the market investment track is also undergoing important changes. Since this year, at the industry level, the early strong sectors such as military industry, medicine and biology, media, power equipment, food and beverage have generally adjusted the index by more than 10%, and only banks and some traditional cycle sectors have achieved positive returns.
What are the main areas of A-share investment opportunities this year? Analysis of a fund company researcher with venture capital investment background. From the perspective of the whole year, this year is still a structural opportunity, not a general rise and fall, and may still be a relatively extreme market structure.
The above-mentioned large insurance asset managers believe that it is suggested to strengthen the safety margin based on the stock selection layout of the medium-term prosperity, and pay attention to the sectors that can still maintain the high prosperity of the industry in the medium-term.
For investment opportunities in various sectors, the “survey of China Insurance Investment officers in 2022″ shows that 24.64% of investment officers chose new energy, 21.74% chose science and technology, and 18.84% chose the consumer sector. Health care, pension and finance sectors both received 10.14% of the vote.
