[view policy · discussion on the city] the growth rate of new social finance has become positive and the A-share has taken a turn for the better. since the beginning of the year, the rapid narrowing of China US interest rate spread and the deterioration of the chip structure of A-Shares have led to the adjustment of a shares. In January, the total amount of new social finance in China exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of new social finance has become positive. Historically, new social finance saw the bottom of A-Shares in the month or quarter after the growth rate became positive, and the difference in time lag was mainly due to the RMB exchange rate. In the departure stage of loose internal and tight external monetary policies between China and the United States, there is pressure on the RMB exchange rate to depreciate. Until the Federal Reserve releases the dove signal, the interest rate gap between China and the United States stabilizes and expands again, the A shares will not bottom out and return to the upward trend. At present, the continuous higher than expected inflation in the United States has strengthened the expectation of raising interest rates by 50bp in March, the yield of US bonds has risen rapidly, the interest rate gap between China and the United States has narrowed to 80bp, and the concerns of RMB devaluation and capital outflow have suppressed the risk appetite of a shares. We believe that after the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in March, the market will further observe whether the Federal Reserve will have more hawkish actions. If there is marginal easing, the US bond yield will decline, the interest rate gap between China and the United States will expand again, and A-Shares may return to the upward cycle. Looking forward to the whole year, we maintain the view that A-Shares are stable before rising and similar to “√”, and we can focus on “undervalued +” and depression strategy throughout the year. In addition to the valuation and repair market in traditional fields, the steady growth direction should also focus on the undervalued sectors in new infrastructure (new energy infrastructure and digital infrastructure).
[resumption · internal view] most of the major A-share markets rose this week, showing style differentiation, the main reasons are that 1) China’s credit data exceeded expectations, and investors’ expectations for steady growth were further strengthened; 2) with US inflation exceeding expectations and US debt breaking 2, global investors’ expectations for interest rate hikes were further strengthened on the original basis, Growth stocks are under the pressure of killing valuations, and the pressure of declining profits in China also makes investors worried about the sustainability of the performance of the growth sector with high growth last year.
[meso · boom] the turnover of civil aviation passengers increased in December, and the prices of resource products such as billet, rebar and power coal increased this week. in December, the year-on-year growth of PCB orders in North America expanded, the year-on-year growth of PCB shipments narrowed, and the year-on-year growth of PCB BB in North America expanded. From January to December, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of Telecom main business income narrowed. In December, the turnover of civil aviation passengers and civil aviation cargo and mail increased. In January, the average price of Huaxia sun double offset paper (70g) and coated paper (128-157g) in South China rose. The prices of billet, rebar and iron ore rose this week; The futures prices of coke, coking coal and thermal coal rose.
[capital · numerous and few] foreign capital flows back, and the issuance of funds is still slow. the net inflow of funds going north this week was 10.74 billion yuan; The total net inflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 3.91 billion yuan; 4.7 billion partial equity public funds were newly established, down from the previous period; ETF continued its net subscription, corresponding to a net inflow of 5.8 billion yuan. In terms of industry preference, banks, non bank finance, non-ferrous metals, etc. have higher net purchase scale of northbound funds; Centralized purchase of financing funds for computers, electrical equipment, building decoration, etc; There are more applications for pharmaceutical ETFs and more redemptions of securities companies. The scale of net reduction of important shareholders is reduced; The planned reduction scale increased slightly.
[theme · wind direction] this week’s industrial observation – the release of the “14th five year plan” for financial standardization, focusing on the digital RMB. catalyzed by events such as the pilot of digital currency for the Winter Olympic Games and the release of the 14th five year plan for financial standardization, digital currency performed well last week. At present, China’s digital currency has entered a large-scale pilot stage, and the digital RMB is ready to emerge. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the sector investment opportunities catalyzed by subsequent events.
[data · valuation] the valuation level of all A-Shares this week is higher than that of last week. PE (TTM) rose 0.3x to 15.6x, in the quantile of 46.7% of the historical valuation level. The valuation of the sector was divided, among which the valuation of the leisure service sector rose more, and the electrical equipment sector fell significantly.
risk tip: the strength of the policy was less than expected, and the US dollar appreciated sharply.
