On February 11, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned from the financial management department and several banks that the real estate loan in January ushered in a “good start”, and the new scale was further improved on the basis of the growth in the fourth quarter of last year. It is estimated that the new real estate loan in January is about 600 billion yuan, about 300 billion yuan more than the monthly average level in the fourth quarter of last year, Among them, real estate development loans increased by about 200 billion yuan, personal housing loans increased by about 100 billion yuan, and the financing behavior of financial institutions to real estate enterprises continued to improve.
According to the data released by the central bank on February 10, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in January, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sub sectors, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan.
Many analysts believe that the long-term loan base will be significantly higher than that in 2021, although it is still at a high level in 2021. at the same time, from the perspective of medium and long-term loans in January, the loans of real estate enterprises are also continuously improving.
personal housing loans continued to pick up
“In January, the medium and long-term loans of household loans increased less than that of the same period last year, mainly due to the obvious high base of the same period last year. Compared with 2018-2020, 742.4 billion yuan was added, which was obviously at a high level. Due to the linkage between medium and long-term loans and housing sales, there were signs of recovery in sales, and the sustainability needs to be further observed.” Yang Chang, chief analyst of the policy group of Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Research Institute.
Ma Kunpeng, chief analyst of the banking industry, said that in January, residents’ short-term credit increased by 100.6 billion, medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion, accounting for 88% of the new medium and long-term loans, with a month on month increase of 84.9 billion and 386.6 billion respectively, “The rapid recovery of residents’ medium and long-term loans under the release of the credit line at the beginning of the year confirms the vigorous trend of mortgage demand and the policy support attitude towards the reasonable demand for mortgage. It is expected that residents’ medium and long-term loans will maintain a stable growth.”
Zhou Junzhi, chief Macro Analyst of Minsheng securities, also said that the year-on-year negative growth of residents’ medium and long-term loans in January seems not strong. However, once the two data are compared, first, the recent real estate transactions are still cold, and the real estate market has not yet warmed up systematically; The amount of resident credit in January last year was very high, and the year-on-year base of resident credit in January this year was high. “In this case, the medium and long-term loans of residents recorded 742.4 billion yuan this month, which fully shows that the financial supply level is actively liberalizing residents’ housing loans.”
The improvement of personal housing loan sales data in January has something to do with the 0.05 percentage point reduction of LPR over 5 years on January 20. The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned from previous interviews that in late January, affected by the downward trend of LPR interest rate, the mortgage interest rate decreased as a whole. The interest rate of the first house loan of banks in Beijing generally fell to 5.15%, and that of the second house loan fell to 5.65%; The interest rate of the first house loan of banks in Shanghai generally fell to 4.95%, and that of the second house loan fell to 5.65%; In Shenzhen, the interest rate of the first house fell to 4.9% and that of the second house fell to 5.2%.
In addition, banks in many regions have also taken the initiative to reduce mortgage interest rates and improved their lending speed. For example, several state-owned banks in Suzhou lowered the interest rate of the first mortgage to 4.95%, 0.75 percentage points lower than the interest rate of 5.7% at the end of 2021; The lowest interest rate for second home loans can reach 5.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from 6% at the end of last year. In January, while the housing loan amount in Shanghai housing loan market was sufficient, the housing loan speed of banks was also greatly shortened, generally from January to February, up to one week at the fastest.
financing of real estate enterprises continued to improve
While personal housing loans continued to pick up, the financing behavior of financial institutions to real estate enterprises continued to improve. According to the data of the central bank, the loans of enterprises (Institutions) increased by 3.36 trillion yuan in January, including short-term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) Guo Qiwei, chief analyst of the banking industry, said that the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased year-on-year for the first time after a year-on-year decrease for six consecutive months, on the one hand, infrastructure made efforts to pry the relevant medium and long-term loans, on the other hand, banks accelerated the release of reserve projects and promoted the total amount of loans to rise. “in addition to infrastructure, the correction of real estate policies will enrich bank loan projects.”
“In January, the central bank issued measures to encourage the issuance of real estate M & A loans. In February, the policy continued to deepen, the notice on the exclusion of affordable rental housing related loans from the management of real estate loan concentration and the measures for the supervision of national commercial housing pre-sale funds” Two documents were issued to clarify the signal of classified supervision of real estate. In the real estate field, blocking the side door and opening the front door is conducive to stimulating the growth of medium and long-term loans and optimizing the loan structure. ” Guo Qiwei analysis.
Zhou Junzhi also said that the current market pays close attention to social finance. In a sense, it is to look at wide infrastructure and real estate. From the current wide credit data, it is obvious that steady growth is gradually being realized into the data. “Since October last year, the financial port, the local government’s’ one city, one policy ‘and other policies have been adjusted to loosen the constraints of real estate policy at the margin. More real estate policy adjustments will be seen in the future, which also determines that another important fulcrum of credit easing in the future lies in real estate.” Zhou Junzhi thinks.
According to statistics, since the issuance of the notice on financial services for mergers and acquisitions of key real estate enterprise risk disposal projects, several banks such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Guangdong Development Bank have stated that they will provide financing support for real estate mergers and acquisitions, including M & a theme bonds, M & A loans, M & a funds, asset securitization, etc, It is estimated that the total M & A financing support will exceed 30 billion yuan.
