Market trend:
Today, the market fluctuated and fell, and the gem index fell sharply again. This week, the gem index fell by 5.59% and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell by 17.32% this week. On the disk, salt lake lithium, real estate, tourism, coal, finance and other sectors took turns to be active in the morning, and the digital currency transaction strengthened in the afternoon, but most of the sectors rising in the morning fell in the afternoon. In terms of decline, today's pharmaceutical stocks became the main force in the market, with several sub sectors leading the decline. Overall, today's stocks fell more or less, and nearly 4000 stocks in the two cities fell. After the market fell sharply before the festival, in the first week after the festival, in addition to the strength of some heavyweights in Shanghai stock market, the gem index was killed again, and the market vulnerability was shown. Pay attention to prevent the stampede caused by the rapid decline of some heavyweights on the gem. At the same time, it should be noted that the decline of the market has been irrational. From the previous statements of the management, we still hope that the market will be stable and good. The behavior of over killing valuation may be transmitted from the secondary market to the primary market, which is not conducive to the stability of the capital market; In the future, we will pay attention to whether the management will introduce policies to stabilize the market.
Hot sector analysis:
In terms of sectors, today we focus on tracking two sectors: first, the banking sector continued to rise, and the Bank of Lanzhou rose again. In January, social finance credit data made a good start, greatly exceeding expectations, the issuance of local bonds increased year-on-year, and the credit structure continued to be optimized. Looking forward to 2022, in the external environment of wide credit and stable economy, the new volume of social financing and credit is expected to maintain a steady expansion, M1 is expected to rebound significantly in February, and the bottom recovery of the economy after M1 inflection point will continue to confirm. The growth rate of social finance is expected to fluctuate upward in the future. Factors supporting credit expansion include: ① pre issuance of government bonds in the first half of the year; ② At the end of last year, the transition period of new regulations on asset management ended, and the downward pressure on off balance sheet financing has eased this year; ③ The real estate policy continues to correct the deviation, and the financing of mortgage and real estate enterprises is expected to return to normal. The banking sector still has more opportunities than risks, with undervalued value superimposed on credit exceeding expectations. Second, the tourism sector. The Civil Aviation Administration said that it may open the door of the country in 2023, and the market has expected that it may be opened in the autumn after the two sessions. The market game trend is obvious. Individual stocks in the tourism sector are resistant to decline before the festival, and the increase after the festival is significantly stronger than the market index. Individual stocks in the tourism sector are scarce. Once liberalized, the suppressed tourism demand for two years is expected to blowout. In the future, there are still opportunities for repeated activity in this sector.
Outlook:
In the case of the new low of the gem index, the Shanghai index was dragged down, and the market fell after rebounding for several consecutive days. At present, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is tense and the demand for capital hedging is increasing. If the situation in Russia and Ukraine further escalates, it will have an impact on the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply. On the whole, the market has adjusted a lot, and investors need not panic too much in the current position. Before the Spring Festival, public offering institutions launch collective self purchase, and the funds are expected to enter the market gradually after the festival; Opportunities often fall out. The main line of steady growth has not changed. The overall performance of new and old infrastructure is resistant to decline, but fluctuations bring opportunities.
