Since the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger, the market has closed positive continuously, indicating that bulls' confidence has been restored. Many ministries and commissions continued to promote the implementation of stable growth policies, and major projects were successively deployed in various regions, which strengthened investors' confidence in economic growth. Analysts generally believe that driven by various policies, China's economy will continue to recover stably in the first quarter. Driven by both policies and economy, the A-share market is expected to usher in a "little spring".
For the investment opportunities in the A-share market, institutions generally believe that investment should find advantages in the set trend, and steady growth is the main line of medium and long-term investment, while banking, building materials, household appliances and other industries are the advantage tracks that can be preferentially arranged under this background.
the bank index rose more than 5% after the holiday
three main investment lines are favored by institutions
In the context of the continuous promotion of various steady growth policies, the market is still looking forward to "wide credit", and the banking industry, as one of the beneficiary industries, has attracted the attention of investors. Galaxy Securities pointed out in the research report that at present, the banking industry is expected to benefit from steady growth, the effect of wide credit is obvious, and the prosperity has further rebounded, basically for the good.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that in terms of bank credit demand, steady growth, infrastructure first, increased efforts, and real estate demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the infrastructure investment in 2022 will be stronger than last year, driving the repair of infrastructure credit demand; The mortgage increment was 3.8 trillion yuan, maintaining the level of last year; The growth rate of development loans is expected to rise slightly to 2%.
At present, listed banks mainly present three characteristics: first, outstanding performance. As of February 10, a total of 19 listed banks had issued 2021 annual performance express, accounting for 45.24% of the total number of listed banks. All 19 banks achieved profits during the reporting period, and the net profit increased by more than 5% year-on-year. It is noteworthy that the net profit of four banks in 2021, including Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Zhangjiagang bank, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , increased by more than 25% year-on-year. Second, the stock price strengthened after the festival. From February 7 to February 10, the bank index rose as much as 5.01%, outperforming the Shanghai index (up 3.70%) in the same period. All individual stocks in the industry rose during the period. Among them, the Bank of Lanzhou rose the most, with a cumulative increase of 17.55%, and five individual stocks, including Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Xiamen Bank Co.Ltd(601187) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , also rose more than 7%. Third, the valuation is generally low. Statistics show that as of the closing on February 10, the latest dynamic P / E ratio (overall method) of the A-share market was 18.41 times, and the latest dynamic P / E ratios of all bank stocks were lower than this level. The latest dynamic P / E ratios of 11 stocks, including Hua Xia Bank Co.Limited(600015) , Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) , Bank Of Guiyang Co.Ltd(601997) , Bank Of Beijing Co.Ltd(601169) , were less than 5 times.
In this regard, Zhuang Hongdong, the cheese fund manager, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the performance of the banking sector was relatively bright after the Spring Festival, and the credit also showed an obvious "front low and rear high" in January. I believe that in the future, with the gradual implementation of wide credit, the market will further improve. Under the background of undervalued value and good performance expectation, the banking sector deserves the attention of investors.
Yang Ziyi, research director of Zhongrui Heyin, believes that from the perspective of fundamentals, under the background of steady growth policy, the asset quality of the banking industry is expected to improve marginally. From the perspective of capital, the current market pays more attention to value and undervalued factors, while the banking sector has such attributes, and the allocation of superimposed public funds in the banking sector is relatively low, It also supports the opportunity for phased alpha returns in the banking sector.
Xia Fengguang, a private placement fund manager interviewed by the Securities Daily, said that banks are a typical highly leveraged industry, which is closely related to the macroeconomic trend. Under the background of steady growth, credit risk can be reduced, which is expected to support the improvement of bank asset quality. In addition, the valuation of bank shares is at a 10-year low, with the characteristics of high dividends. In addition, the interest of northbound funds in the A-share banking sector is increasing, and the market attention of the banking industry will continue to increase in the future.
For the investment in bank stocks, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) it is suggested that investors should grasp three main lines: the first is the rebound of high-quality bank stocks caused by phased mitigation of real estate risks in the short term; Second, in the medium term, local banks in developed regions such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang operated steadily. The supply and demand of these banks' credit was booming, and the operating performance was more uncertain; Third, large banks with stable credit supply.
three positive factors support building materials
The index rose 7.85%
\u3000\u3000 "Under the general tone of steady growth, new and old infrastructure is an important driving force. In the field of traditional infrastructure, rail transit infrastructure, affordable housing, urban renewal and people's livelihood infrastructure and water conservancy projects are still the key directions. At present, the valuation of the infrastructure sector is low, and the valuation repair and favorable policies are expected to boost the valuation of the sector, and the central infrastructure enterprises and design enterprises are expected to benefit. On January 12, the State Council Printing and distributing the development plan of modern comprehensive transportation system in the 14th five year plan; On January 22, the national development and Reform Commission issued the "14th five year plan for the construction of modern circulation system". Under the positive influence of strong policies, the new infrastructure sector can be used as the main line of medium and long-term investment. " Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, said in an interview with Securities Daily.
After the Spring Festival in the year of the tiger, the building materials index rose by 7.85% as a whole, better than the Shanghai Composite Index (up 3.7%) in the same period, and more than 90% of the stocks in the industry rose during the period. Among them, Hualan Group Co.Ltd(301027) had the largest cumulative increase, reaching 61.59%, followed by Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) , Chongqing Construction Engineering Group Co.Ltd(600939) , Huitong group, Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) , with cumulative increases of 48.21%, 46.44%, 46.42% and 46.36% respectively. 15 stocks, including China Haisum Engineering Co.Ltd(002116) , Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(301038) , Pubang Landscape Architecture Co.Ltd(002663) , had cumulative increases of more than 20%, with eye-catching performance.
For the rising market of the building materials sector after the festival, market participants said that at present, the sector enjoys three positive factors.
One is the support at the policy level. Yuan Da, director of the comprehensive Department of national economy of the national development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference on January 18 that infrastructure investment should be carried out appropriately in advance, 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan should be accelerated, and the special bonds issued by local governments in the fourth quarter of last year should be implemented into specific projects as soon as possible in accordance with the requirements of "funds follow the projects", and the issued quota should be issued as soon as possible, Strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter. In addition, on January 29, 2022, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on the pilot tax policy of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the field of infrastructure.
Second, the profitability of Listed Companies in the building materials sector continued to improve. According to the data, up to now, 108 listed companies in the construction and building materials industry have issued performance forecasts for 2021, and 43 are expected to be happy, accounting for nearly 40%. Among them, the net profit of 13 companies in 2021 is expected to increase by more than 100% year-on-year. Among the seven companies that have disclosed the performance express of 2021, Ruitai Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002066) , Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) , Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) realized a year-on-year increase in net profit.
Third, the valuation of individual stocks in the building materials sector is generally low. As of February 10, the latest dynamic P / E ratio of the building materials sector was 19.1 times, and the latest dynamic P / E ratio of 96 stocks was lower than this level, accounting for more than 40%. The latest valuations of 28 stocks, including China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , are less than 10 times.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that the market's response to the policy is not sufficient. With the approaching of the "two sessions" and the gradual improvement of economic data, the relevant industrial chains of financial development and construction materials may continue to perform relatively.
\u3000\u3000 "Under the joint influence of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations, the national Standing Committee called for placing steady growth in a more prominent position, deploying and accelerating the promotion of major projects identified in the 14th five year plan and special plans, and expanding effective investment. Among them, key areas include advanced manufacturing, infrastructure such as transportation and communications, affordable housing, major water conservancy projects, etc Under the background of steady growth policy, the follow-up performance of the building materials industry is optimistic. In terms of specific investment opportunities, we can focus on the construction enterprises of central enterprises that benefit from stable growth, have newly signed orders, have fully adjusted and low valuation; Prefabricated construction industry chain, smart municipal pipe network and pipe enterprises; And the leader in the subdivided field of building materials with brand and channel advantages. " Wu Qihong, chief researcher of Guangzhou Bandung, told reporters.
"steady growth + liquidity improvement" helps
public offering positions in household appliances industry increased
"With the multiple support of continued strengthening of policies, abundant liquidity and warmer risk appetite, the restless market in spring is expected to continue." Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that, on the one hand, the effect of steady growth is beginning to appear. In January, the comprehensive PMI was 51%, which was above the boom and bust line. Structurally, production continued to recover, consumption improved slightly, and investment is expected to gradually rise with the implementation of steady growth policies. The economy showed a weak recovery and continued to pick up. Concerns about the strength of the steady growth policy eased, and the effect gradually appeared. On the other hand, funds continued to flow northward, and micro liquidity improved. Since January, many funds have started self purchase. At the same time, the restrictions on the purchase of products have been relaxed. After the Spring Festival, the residents' configurable funds have increased, and the outflow funds before the festival return to the stock market.
After the Spring Festival in the year of the tiger, the household appliance index rose by 0.5% as a whole, and more than 70% of the stocks in the industry rose during the period. Among them, Canature Health Technology Group Co.Ltd(300272) showed outstanding performance, with a cumulative increase of 15.31% during the period. Yichang technology, Changhong Huayi Compressor Co.Ltd(000404) , Sichuan Changhong Electric Co.Ltd(600839) , Whirlpool (China) Co.Ltd(600983) , Youngy Health Co.Ltd(300247) also increased by 9.97%, 9.33%, 7.19%, 6.62% and 6.25% respectively during the period.
In this regard, Liu Yan, chairman of anjue assets, interviewed by the reporter of Securities Daily, said: "At present, the overall valuation of the home appliance industry is relatively low and has a certain configuration cost performance: on the one hand, the stabilization of raw material prices has led to the improvement of the profit end of the home appliance industry; on the other hand, the recovery of real estate will help to promote the improvement of the home appliance sales end, focusing on the subdivided track whose penetration is expected to maintain rapid improvement, such as the intelligent upgrading demand of small household appliances and new household appliances."
The profits of Listed Companies in the household appliance industry continued to improve. According to the data, up to now, 37 listed companies in the household appliance industry have issued performance forecasts for 2021, and 25 are expected to be happy, accounting for nearly 70%. Among them, Sichuan Changhong Electric Co.Ltd(600839) , Canature Health Technology Group Co.Ltd(300272) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Zhe Jiang Kangsheng Co.Ltd(002418) , Zhenjiang Dongfang Electric Heating Technology Co.Ltd(300217) , Jiangsu Chunlan Refrigerating Equipment Stock Co.Ltd(600854) , Shannon Xinchuang, Shanghai Highly (Group) Co.Ltd(600619) , Konka Group Co.Ltd(000016) and other 9 companies expect the maximum year-on-year change in net profit in 2021 to be 100% or more.
The continuous improvement of industry profits is mainly due to the support of two aspects: on the one hand, the bottom of the industry has reached and the recovery is expected. Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) believes that consumer demand recovers slowly and the profit of household appliances industry is expected to improve marginally. Looking forward to 2022, China's consumer demand will recover slowly and overseas demand will remain resilient. In terms of profitability, the marginal impact of raw materials, exchange rate, shipping and chips is weakened, and the improvement of profitability can be expected.
On the other hand, home appliance sales have increased steadily, and new consumer appliances are booming. Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that according to JD data, the Gmv of JD home appliances reached 236 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 15%. On JD platform, the sales scale of sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) in 2021 increased by 38.2% year-on-year, the sales scale of integrated cooking Center (including integrated stove) increased by 48.7%, the sales scale of dishwasher increased by 29.0% year-on-year, and the sales scale of massager increased by 11.4% year-on-year.
The shareholding ratio of public funds in household appliance stocks increased. Galaxy Securities said that as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the market value proportion of heavy holdings of funds in the household appliances sector was 1.78%, up 0.2 percentage points from 1.58% at the end of the third quarter of 2021. On the whole, the willingness of the public fund to allocate the household appliance industry is still low, but it has improved. With the marginal weakening of factors restricting the household appliance industry, such as rising prices of raw materials, flat downstream retail and poor shipping, the profitability of household appliance enterprises is expected to improve, and the proportion of fund heavy positions in household appliance stocks is expected to continue to increase.
