High track stocks made up for the decline, and related funds performed poorly. How to go in the future?
As of February 10, the Shanghai stock index rose for four consecutive days, realizing a V-shaped reversal. Investors welcomed the good start of a shares, but the gem index continued to weaken. The High-level Track stocks in the fund’s heavy positions entered the state of covering the decline. For example, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) continued to decline, falling by more than 8% during the session, the lowest in nearly four months. The photovoltaic sector Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) once fell by the limit, and the cro sector Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) fell by more than 7%, and the share price continued to hit a phased low.
Many popular funds last year showed a sharp correction. In this context, many fund companies have made a voice to help. Some fund companies believe that they should cherish the gem below 2800 points and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index below 3400 points. Some fund companies also believe that any industry with long-term logic will inevitably have short-term fluctuations. What they need to do is to look farther and stick to the origin of value investment. When there is a bubble in the industry, there is no fanaticism. At the same time, when the industry is over panic, do not easily deny it.
growth style funds fell nearly 10% during the year
Since the opening of the market in the year of the tiger, the Shanghai stock index has risen for four consecutive times, sweeping away the haze of the stock market before the Spring Festival, and the sentiment of A-share investors has gradually stabilized. However, for most fund investors, it is difficult to say happiness. The data show that the high-level track sectors such as Ning portfolio, cro index, power supply equipment and semiconductor index of the fund’s heavy positions have entered the state of covering the decline.
The share prices of popular track stocks fluctuated violently, and even rumors such as “Gran was redeemed by institutions for 40 billion funds” made investors shudder again.
According to the data, the growth style fund index concentrated in popular tracks fell by 9.57% during the year, the worst performance, and the value style index performed the best, falling by only 0.5% during the year.
Dragged down by the net worth adjustment of many funds, the heat of the fund issuance market also suffered a freezing point, and the monthly average issuance share shrank sharply. Many fund products have announced the extension of raising. The data show that as of February 10, 27 public funds have announced the extension of raising period since the beginning of the year, of which active equity funds account for the vast majority.
what do fund companies think of the market adjustment?
Fund companies generally believe that there are obviously many irrational emotions in the market in 2022. Has the popular track that has fallen sharply recently fallen in place?
The new energy vehicle sector has made a significant correction. Since 2022, the correction range of China Securities new energy vehicle industry index has exceeded 14%. In this regard, Boshi Fund believes that the main reason is that the Fed’s interest rate hike suppresses the valuation of the global growth sector, and under the background of China’s strong expectation of stable growth, the short-term market’s preference for the stable growth sector has increased, and the current market lacks incremental admission funds, forming a phased suppression of the new energy vehicle sector. At the current time point, we are still firmly optimistic about the investment opportunities in the new energy vehicle industry. Globally, the policies of new energy vehicles are continuously increasing, which is in line with the theme of carbon neutrality and the direction of energy conservation and emission reduction. At the same time, it is also one of the ways for China to promote consumption and domestic demand. At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still less than 10% in the world. The industry still has a high outlook and strong certainty of long-term growth. After the early correction, the valuation of the sector has gradually approached the historical bottom, and the industry fundamentals are in the stage of short-term, medium and long-term upward at the same time, so it is relatively more optimistic about the performance of the core leading companies in the industrial chain.
With regard to the sharp decline of CXO sector, China Merchants Fund believes that it is mainly due to the negative impact brought by overseas regulatory changes. The impact of the event still needs to continue to observe the follow-up progress. Enterprises listed in UVL can take relevant measures to strive to be removed from the list, which generally takes several months. For track companies, we still need to wait for the recovery of risk appetite. However, from the medium-term perspective, the performance and valuation of CXO sector have gradually entered a reasonable range.
public funds: cherish the gem below 2800 points and the Shanghai stock index below 3400 points
How will the future play?
Cinda Aoyin fund also pointed out in a letter to investors that it is unlikely that the A-share market will decline sharply this year, and the probability will continue to fluctuate. The market twists and turns often breed investment opportunities, so we should actively grasp structural investment opportunities. The expectation of steady growth will also support the valuation of A-Shares in the future, and the market is expected to usher in a more favorable time window. The market expects that the central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates in 2022, and the monetary and fiscal policies will be stable and loose throughout the year. For the investment in 2022, we need to further focus on the mining of subdivided industries, and there is no need to worry too much about the overall market. We should cherish the gem below 2800 points and the Shanghai composite index below 3400 points. The industries with deep decline in the early stage have the internal driving force of short-term rebound, so it is recommended to be patient. In terms of investment layout, we can pay attention to the following three aspects: first, oversold industries such as transportation, tourism, aquaculture and real estate chain; Second, the long-term development logic of green power, new energy, wind power, photovoltaic and other tracks in the field of “carbon neutralization” has not changed; Third, environmental protection, construction and other counter cyclical sectors, whose performance growth certainty will be more fully reflected this year.
Data show that the recent stock market turmoil, the Shanghai composite index once fell to a phased low of 3356.56, and the gem index fell to a low of 2782.28. After a short adjustment, as of February 10, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3485.91 and the gem index closed at 2826.52.
Qi Teng, general manager of Qianhai special account department of Hang Seng, said recently that looking forward to the future market, after the venting of emotions, the trend of A-Shares may return to the normal track again. He is not pessimistic about this year’s a shares. This year’s A-Shares may show a “V” shape trend and show a slow bull trend for a long time. Any industry with long-term logic will inevitably have short-term fluctuations, especially when there are problems with valuation and cost performance. What we need to do is to look further and stick to the origin of value investment. When there is a bubble in the industry, there is no fanaticism. At the same time, when the industry is over panic, do not easily deny it.
China Merchants Fund said that is optimistic about the future trend of the A-share market and works in the direction of undervaluation structurally. In terms of structural allocation, the liquidity test in 2022 is not over, superimposing the low market risk preference, the market still flows to the low, and the style is accelerated to switch to the undervalued style. In the undervalued sector, we should pay extra attention to the direction of profit reversal or marginal improvement in 2022, and grasp the main line of steady growth with consumption and infrastructure chain as the core.
Xie Yi, manager of Nord fund, believes that the economy will gradually recover and all mainstream sectors such as the cycle will benefit, including consumption, technology and Hong Kong stocks. After the adjustment since the beginning of the year, A-Shares as a whole gradually show high valuation advantages, superimpose their fundamentals, and the probability will be reflected in the subsequent market.
future strategy
The “foundation” of the long-term logic of a shares: the fundamentals of China’s economy for a long time have not changed
After the Spring Festival, the overall confidence of private placement increased by more than half, and the position exceeded 80%. It is optimistic that A-Shares will enter a reasonable valuation range
Securities companies: optimistic about the research perspective of “lowering” the main line of valuation repair
