Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. in the short term, the financial data of the central bank made a good start, the banking and other financial sectors strengthened the underpinning index, and the market trend for the better remained unchanged. While the differentiation of subject stocks weakened, the gem was shocked to find the bottom. After continuous adjustment, the current fundamentals are well supported, the capital and mood are boosted, the repair of new markets may have been started, and the spring offensive is also worth looking forward to. After financial stocks, growth stocks that have fallen excessively can also be tracked appropriately.
Today, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low, but with the positive boost of financial data, financial stocks ushered in a rise, leading the index to rise rapidly and turn red. However, many sectors such as medicine and biology fell, dragging down the index. In the afternoon, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) continued to bottom, with an intraday decline of more than 4%, and the gem once fell 2%. On the disk, the performance of cyclical stocks such as finance and real estate was eye-catching, but most sectors fell, led by medicine and biology, and beauty care, power equipment, electronics and automobiles led the decline.
With the release of the latest financial data from the central bank, the market has ushered in a certain boost. On February 10, the financial statistics and social financing data of January 2022 released by the people’s Bank of China showed that RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in the current month, the highest in a single month, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year; The increment of social finance reached 6.17 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year, also the highest in a single month. The improvement of financial data also shows that the policy of steady growth is effective, and the support to the market is self-evident under the stabilization of the economy. At the same time, the social finance of RMB 6 trillion is indeed much higher than the market expectation, and the valuation repair of the banking sector is also a great boost. So we can see that the banking sector took the lead as soon as it opened today, and the index also went out of its new high in nearly half a year. After finance and securities companies, the all day insurance sector also ushered in a sharp rise. With the continuous stability of finance, infrastructure and other sectors, the market is not pessimistic.
However, it should be pointed out that with the release of financial data, the effect of the implementation of the steady growth policy began to appear, which is also good for the market. After the continuous rise, the strength of bank stocks is obvious to all, while after banks and securities, insurance relay rises. We should pay attention to the possible rise and fall of financial stocks in the short term. Of course, the valuation repair market is not over, but in the structural market, we need to pay attention to the rhythm of the market.
Next, after continuous adjustment, the valuations of many growth stocks returned. With the boost of the high prosperity of the industry and performance, the current cost performance gradually appeared, or it was the main force of the rebound in the next stage. Among them, for example, the semiconductor industry chain with good performance as a whole still has medium-term certainty and is worth tracking after continuous adjustment when the imbalance between supply and demand is expected to promote performance growth and the development supported by domestic substitution.
Therefore, after continuous adjustment, we are not pessimistic about the market. On the contrary, when the emotional bottom is approaching, the periodic multiple “bottoms” of the market usher in resonance, and the restorative market and spring market are expected to kick off. At present, we can consider gradually lurking and configuring the market in the first quarter. However, we still need to pay attention to the rhythm of the market, especially under the good cash of financial dividends such as banks, we should be careful of small ups and downs in the short term, and we can tentatively pay attention to the over falling varieties of technology stocks with excellent performance.
