Key investment points:
In January, the increment of social finance and credit reached a record high
On February 10, the central bank released the financial data of January. The increment of social finance and credit reached a record high, and the year-on-year increase of M2 also increased.
M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, picking up somewhat month on month. At the end of January, M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively. In the early spring festival, enterprises concentrated on paying salaries, bonuses and benefits, resulting in the transfer of enterprise deposits to residents. M1 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year and 5.4 percentage points compared with the previous month. Excluding the influence of the wrong timing of the Spring Festival, M1 increased by about 2% year-on-year. Specifically, fiscal deposits increased by 585.1 billion yuan less, the year-on-year increase in resident deposits expanded to 3.93 trillion yuan, and enterprise deposits increased by 2.35 trillion yuan less year-on-year. The financial front also confirmed the misplaced issuance of special bonds in January compared with the same period last year.
Social finance has made a good start, with credit and government bonds as the main support. China’s social financing scale increased by 617 million yuan in January, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. It is estimated to be 5.38 trillion yuan, compared with 2.37 trillion yuan. At the end of January, the stock of social financing scale was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. Structurally, in January, credit and government bonds became the main contributions to the high growth of social finance, and the year-on-year growth rate of social finance also rebounded steadily, which was also driven by a wide currency since the second half of last year, abundant reserves of infrastructure projects at the beginning of the year and financial advance.
The credit data exceeded expectations, and the increase in loans was characterized by weak residents and strong enterprises. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sub sectors, resident loans increased by 843 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 427 billion yuan. Among them, short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 227.2 billion yuan and 202.4 billion yuan respectively; Loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 810 billion yuan year-on-year. Medium and long-term loans increased by 1780.1 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.81 trillion yuan. It can be seen that the credit situation of the household sector is weak, partly due to the high base in the same period in 2021, and the demand for mortgage loans has been released within two months after the recovery of the policy in November 2021. The overall willingness of residents to buy houses is still weak, which is mutually confirmed by the slowdown of real estate sales data in the same period. Therefore, the higher than expected credit situation in January was mainly due to the increase of enterprise loans. We believe that the recovery of corporate credit demand is mainly due to the demand for physical financing driven by infrastructure under the demand of “stable growth” of the economy. The issuance scale of special bonds in January was also significantly higher than that in the same period of last year, and it is expected that it will still support social finance in the first quarter.
Overall, we believe that although the structure still needs to be optimized (for example, residents’ medium and long-term financing is still weak), the total amount of social finance data in January was significantly higher than expected. This month’s financial data may help strengthen the market’s optimistic expectations on the policy of “stable growth”, which is good for a shares. It is suggested to pay attention to infrastructure and large finance related sectors.
Increase in financing balance. On February 9, the balance of A-share financing was 1625.103 billion yuan, an increase of 2.636 billion yuan month on month; The balance of margin trading was 172.482 billion yuan, an increase of 4.880 billion yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1527.723 billion yuan, an increase of 391 million yuan month on month.
Net capital inflow to the north. On February 10, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was 4.520 billion yuan, including 55.374 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 50.853 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 1661.092 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $60 million on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $15.251 billion and a sale transaction of HK $15.310 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2234.112 billion.
Money market interest rates fell. On February 10, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor overnight interest rate was 1.6730%, down 5.50bp, Shibor one week was 1.9650%, down 4.50bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of deposit institutions was 1.6626% overnight, down 4.72bp and 1.9328% a week, down 5.58bp. The 10-year maturity yield of China national debt was 2.7328%, down 0.00bp.
The three major U.S. stocks fell, while European stock markets rose and fell. On February 10, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 35241.59 points, down 1.47%; The S & P 500 index closed at 4504.08 points, down 1.81%; The NASDAQ index closed at 14185.64 points, down 2.10%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 7101.55 points, down 0.41%; Germany’s DAX index closed at 15490.44 points, up 0.05%; The FTSE 100 index closed at 7672.40, up 0.38%. In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 27696.08 points, up 0.42%; The Hang Seng Index closed at 24924.35 points, up 0.38%.
The dollar index rose. On February 10, the dollar index rose 0.13% to 95.6799. The euro rose 0.05% against the dollar to 1.1429. The dollar rose 0.40% against the yen to 116.0000. Sterling rose 0.18% against the dollar to 1.3560. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3590, up 0.03%. The spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3637, depreciating by 0.02%. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3599, up 0.08%.
Gold fell and crude oil rose. On February 10, Comex gold futures fell 0.38% to close at US $1827.30/oz. WTI crude oil futures rose 0.01% to close at US $90.04/barrel. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.38% to close at US $91.45/barrel. COMEX copper futures fell 0.36% to close at US $4.6185/lb. LME copper three-month futures rose 0.86% to close at US $10182 / ton.
