Event overview
On February 10, 2022, the people's Bank of China released the financial data for January 2022. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, expected to be 3.77 trillion yuan, up from 1.13 trillion yuan; Social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, expected to be 5.45 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 2.37 trillion yuan; The stock of social finance was 10.5% year-on-year, and the former value was 10.3%; M2 was 9.8% year-on-year, and the previous value was 9.0%; M1 was - 1.9% year-on-year, and the previous value was 3.5%.
Core view
Under the background of the central bank's early loose policy guidance and the large issuance of government special bonds, the social finance credit was much higher than expected in January, and the loan structure was also improved, especially the medium and long-term loans of enterprises, which ended the year-on-year low growth for six consecutive months, and the transmission of "wide money" to "wide credit" has achieved initial results. However, there are some hidden worries behind the beautiful data. For example, residential loans are still weak, and short-term loans and medium and long-term loans have increased significantly year-on-year; Bill financing still maintained high growth. Looking back, we believe that "credit easing" is unlikely to be achieved overnight. With the increase of bank corporate credit in January (assault), corporate loans may slow down from February to March, and real estate sales are still weak, and the subsequent improvement of residential loans may not be obvious. Therefore, it needs to be further observed whether the "wide credit" is completed. If the subsequent social finance margin weakens, the measures to stabilize growth may be further overweight.
The new credit exceeded expectations and the loan structure improved
In terms of total amount, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in January (wind unanimously expected 3.77 trillion yuan), an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year; Medium and long-term loans amounted to 2.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.15 trillion yuan month on month and 142.4 billion yuan less year-on-year.
In terms of structure: 1) in January, corporate loans amounted to 3.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 810 billion yuan year-on-year, and the loan structure was also improved. Enterprise short-term loans increased by 434.5 billion yuan year-on-year, maintaining a year-on-year increase for two consecutive months; Medium and long-term loans increased by 60 billion yuan year-on-year, the first positive since July 2021, indicating that the early easing policy of the central bank is gradually taking effect, and the financing demand of enterprises is also improving accordingly; Bill financing still maintained a high growth, with an increase of 319.3 billion yuan year-on-year. On the one hand, it was affected by the low base of last year. On the other hand, it also reflected that the recovery of physical financing demand will not be achieved overnight. 2) In January, resident loans amounted to 843 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 427 billion yuan. Among them, residents' short-term loans were 100.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 227.2 billion yuan, indicating that residents' consumption is still weak; The medium and long-term loans to residents reached 742.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 202.4 billion yuan, and a year-on-year decrease for two consecutive months. On the one hand, the correction of the early real estate policy released the loan demand of some residents. On the other hand, the weakening of residents' expectations for the real estate market also limited the further increase of loan demand. According to the data released by Kerry, In January, the full caliber sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises in a single month decreased by 40.7% year-on-year.
Government bonds continued to develop, and new social finance rebounded sharply
In terms of total amount: Social Finance rebounded significantly in January, with an additional 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of stock social finance was 10.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month.
In terms of structure, new RMB loans increased year-on-year, and corporate bonds, government bonds and stock financing increased year-on-year. 1) RMB loans increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 381.8 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly affected by the year-on-year increase in corporate loans. 2) In terms of direct financing, the net financing of corporate bonds was 579.9 billion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan year-on-year; Stock financing was 143.9 billion yuan, an increase of 44.8 billion yuan year-on-year; 3) The net financing of government bonds was 620.6 billion yuan, an increase of 358.9 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly related to the acceleration of local special bond issuance in January. According to wind data, the net financing of local government bonds reached 670 billion yuan in January; 4) In terms of non-standard, the new non-standard in January increased by 32.8 billion yuan year-on-year: the new entrusted loan increased by 33.7 billion yuan year-on-year, the new trust loan decreased by 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year, and the new undiscounted acceptance bill decreased by 17.1 billion yuan year-on-year.
M1 turned negative year-on-year, M2 rebounded year-on-year, and the scissors difference widened again
In December, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 9.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The acceleration of fiscal expenditure and the increase of household deposits were the main reasons for the recovery of M2.
In December, the growth rate of M1 was - 1.9%, down 5.4% from the previous month. The negative growth rate of M1 was mainly related to the dislocation of the time point of the Spring Festival in 2021 and 2022. In January this year, enterprise demand deposits were converted into household savings deposits. M1 fell, M2 rose, and m1-m2 widened again, reaching a scissors gap of - 11.7%.
Deposit characteristics in December: the year-on-year decrease of deposits from enterprises and non bank institutions led to the decline of deposit growth rate. The deposit growth rate in January was 9.2%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
