Event: on February 10, 2022, the central bank released data showing that RMB loans from financial institutions increased by 3.98 trillion in January 2022, an increase of 2.85 trillion month on month and 394.4 billion year on year; At the end of January, the year-on-year growth rate of RMB loan balance was 11.5%, 0.1 and 1.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively.
In January, the increment of social financing scale was 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of about 3.8 trillion yuan month on month, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan over the same period of last year; At the end of January, the stock of social financing scale increased by 10.5% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points higher and 2.5 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively.
At the end of January, M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and 0.4 percentage points higher than that in the same period of last year; M1 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, 5.4 percentage points lower than the end of last month and 16.6 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.
Main points:
On the whole, the financial data in January show that the monetary policy has sufficient force and the effect of moving forward has been shown. The credit easing process is accelerating, and the credit structure is significantly improved. From the previous government financing force to the two wheel drive of enterprise and government financing. This will provide key support for stabilizing the macro-economic market in the first half of this year and hedging the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation.
In January, the total amount of credit increased significantly compared with the same period, and the contribution of enterprise loans was the largest. In particular, the recovery of medium and long-term loans increased year-on-year, reflecting that the policy of stabilizing credit and steady growth is taking effect; In the same month, the medium and long-term loans of residents increased significantly year-on-year, indicating that the downward pressure on real estate is still great.
In addition to loans, the year-on-year increase of social finance in January mainly came from government and corporate bonds, reflecting the driving effect of the steady growth policy on the wide credit: the year-on-year increase of government bonds came from the forward force of fiscal policy, and the large amount of corporate bond financing was related to the lower issuance interest rate under the wide currency and the steady growth of infrastructure, which boosted the financing demand of urban investment and infrastructure.
At the end of January, the growth rate of M2 rebounded significantly, which was mainly driven by the rapid decline of the base in the same period of last year. At the same time, the fiscal expenditure accelerated in the current month, the year-on-year small increase of fiscal deposits, the accelerated growth of enterprise loans, and the derivation of deposits were also important reasons. At the end of January, the growth rate of M1 fell to a negative value, which was mainly affected by the wrong period of the Spring Festival, and was also directly related to the current "cold wave" of the real estate market.
Looking ahead, considering that the cooling process of the current real estate market is not over and the market confidence needs to be further repaired, the new credit and social finance data in the next few months are expected to continue to maintain a rapid year-on-year growth trend. We judge that with a view to consolidating the foundation of steady growth, there is still room for monetary policy to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates in the second quarter.
