Key points:
The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is high, but the performance of listed companies is growing rapidly, and the overvalued value can be digested
Since December last year, new energy vehicle stocks have generally corrected, with scattered hot spots and lack of main line logic. It is mainly considered that they have experienced rapid rise in the early stage, there is fear of heights in the market, and the impact of liquidity at the end of the year / before the holiday is superimposed. As of January 31, 2022, Wande new energy vehicle index rose by 28.8% in the past year. However, the valuation (PE, TTM) decreased by 28.4% to 61.3 times, and the valuation decreased significantly, mainly due to the company’s profitability. It is true that the valuation of the new energy automobile sector is high, but we believe that the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased rapidly in 2021 (the production and sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2021 was 3521000, a significant increase of 158% year-on-year). The boom of the industrial chain is high, the performance of relevant listed companies is expected, and the overestimation can be digested. The current time point is approaching the intensive disclosure period of annual reports / first quarterly reports of listed companies. With the release of 2021 annual reports of relevant listed companies, the high performance growth can be realized, the valuation of new energy vehicles is expected to further explore, and the investment value is prominent.
Lithium prices remained strong, and the changes in the political situation in Chile attracted market attention
Since December last year, lithium prices have started the third round of rapid rise, with seasonal factors. It is expected that the rise of lithium prices will slow down after the Spring Festival and reach a current high, but it will remain strong. Since December 2021, left-wing leader boric was elected as the new president of Chile (to be inaugurated in March 2022), the changes in Chile’s political situation have attracted market attention. Boric advocated the nationalization of lithium, and constitutional amendment has been put on the agenda. In addition, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia are discussing the establishment of the organization of lithium producing countries, and Mexico is also interested in joining.
Lithium diaphragm is in short supply
On December 24, Shanghai Enjie signed the advance payment agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and agreed that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) would prepay 850 million yuan to Shanghai Enjie to ensure that Shanghai Enjie would supply lithium diaphragm to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in 2022, with a supply amount of about 5.18 billion yuan. 1 / 19 Shanghai Enjie signed the supply guarantee framework agreement with China Innovation airlines, which agreed that China Innovation airlines would prepay 100 million yuan to Shanghai Enjie to ensure the supply in 2022.
At present, lithium diaphragm enterprises are full of production and sales, and their production capacity is tight. The Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) advance payment agreement and the supply guarantee framework agreement of China Innovation Airlines pierce the window paper, revealing that the supply of lithium diaphragm is tight. It has become an urgent task for power battery enterprises to lock in the supply of lithium diaphragm first.
Byd Company Limited(002594) price rise of new energy vehicle models
Byd Company Limited(002594) announced the price rise of new energy vehicle models. Since Tesla raised its quotation several times at the end of 2021, many car companies have followed suit and announced price increases. Especially for some popular models, the supply is in short supply and the waiting time for car collection is long. In this case, the car companies have the confidence to raise their quotation.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies of lithium battery materials. With the in-depth interpretation of the market, the market is digging deeper and deeper; At present, the hot sales of new energy vehicles drive the surge in demand, while the supply of lithium ore is rigid, benefiting from the soaring product price under the contradiction between supply and demand, and the performance flexibility of the company is very large! Although the increase in the early stage is huge, there are still opportunities; Traditional car companies are valuation valleys. Over the years, the market has almost ignored traditional fuel car companies and actively transformed new energy vehicles. In the long run, there are opportunities for value revaluation. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
The new energy vehicle industry is greatly affected by the policy and the boom fluctuates violently; Intensified competition in the new energy vehicle industry; Competition in the power battery industry has intensified.
