\u3000\u30001. Industry: what will be the changes in policies at both ends of supply and demand
1) demand side: it is necessary to tie the bell before the bell can be lifted. The recovery of demand can drive the overall recovery of the industry and gradually repair the hematopoietic capacity of real estate enterprises. At present, the central interest rate cut guides the reduction of housing loan interest rate + local policies support the market expectation due to urban implementation, but the bottom of the market has not yet appeared, and the experience of the past leniency cycle shows that, The further opening of demand side policies can accelerate the emergence of the bottom of the market. We believe that in 2022, cities that overcompensate on the demand side will take the lead in relaxing demand side policies.
2) supply side: at present, the supply side policy is mainly divided into two centralized supply of land, two red lines for banks, pre-sale fund supervision and three red lines for real estate enterprises. We believe that the evolution path of the supply side policy in 2022 is probably as follows: two centralized land supply to make a moderate “compromise” to the real estate enterprises that can obtain land, personal mortgage loans and development loans gradually return to the normal level, the supervision of local pre-sale funds will be corrected and standardized, and M & A loans will not be included in the three red lines to help optimize the production capacity of the industry.
\u3000\u30002. Company: what is real security?
1) short term risk: sales pressure and debt repayment pressure together constitute two major risk factors affecting the short-term financial security of real estate enterprises; 2) Medium term risk: the quality of land storage of real estate enterprises directly affects the medium-term sales collection of real estate enterprises. The quality of land storage needs to focus on land layout, structure and cost; 3) Long term risk: it is the general trend for real estate enterprises to develop diversified businesses, but diversified businesses need to follow the trend, and the development logic is biased towards long-term.
\u3000\u30003. Assets: acquisition and acquisition tools are ready. What factors should be considered in physical acquisition and acquisition?
The sale of assets or the withdrawal of funds from the business sector is an effective way for the self rescue of the real estate enterprises in distress. It is also a direct means to clear the industrial capacity and accelerate the optimization of the industrial pattern. However, the potential risks implied in the acquisition may also drag down the performance of the acquirer. M & A assets are mainly from the physical level, and the risk of M & A assets is mainly from the physical level; 2) The risk of M & A at the company level mainly comes from the later management risk.
\u3000\u30004. Investment suggestions:
Considering that the policy force is expected to shift from the capital side to the demand side, the beta market of the sector will continue, and the leading real estate enterprises with high credit have a relative competitive advantage in the above short, medium and long-term risks, and have a greater probability of capturing high-quality assets and companies in the collection and M & A, so as to realize the thickening of profits and the coordination of diversified businesses. We suggest to pay attention to: 1) national central state-owned enterprises at the top of the industry’s M & a food chain (especially companies that have issued M & A loans): China Resources Land, China Resources Vientiane life, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , and China Construction Development International Group; 2) Other high credit leaders benefiting from changes in the industry pattern: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China overseas development, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; 3) High quality private enterprises with sound finance: Longhu group, Xuhui group, Xuhui Yongsheng, Baolong real estate and Baolong commerce; 4) Deep cultivation of core areas and regional leaders with rich resources: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 5) Private enterprises that have survived the difficult times and have been wrongly appraised and repaired: Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) and Xincheng Yue, Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) and Jinke services. two
