\u3000\u3000 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (688005)
Ternary high nickel is the general trend, which has the advantages of high energy density and low cost
Ternary materials have high energy density but insufficient economy, and iron lithium has low cost but insufficient energy density. Under CTP and blade battery technology, the energy density of iron lithium battery has increased, and the proportion of power has gradually increased. However, we believe that in the medium and long term, high nickel ternary can have both high energy density and low cost. Ternary high nickel is the general trend. There is a logic to improve the permeability of high nickel in ternary positive electrode.
High nickel has high energy density: the energy density of ncm811 battery module is more than 200wh / kg, while that of ncm333, ncm523 and ncm622 is between 150-180wh / kg.
High nickel and low long-term cost: nickel resources are abundant compared with cobalt resources. With the completion and continuous replication of Zhongwei, Huayou and other nickel integration projects, the nickel cost is expected to be further reduced.
The proportion of high nickel in Sanyuan increased from 2.9% in 17 years to 47% in September 21. We expect that in 22 / 25 years, the global high nickel ternary will account for 55% / 85% of ternary cathode, the demand will reach 400000 / 1510000 tons, and the compound growth rate in 21-25 years will be 66%.
Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) Fundamentals: high nickel pure standard, leading position has become
Aiming at the high nickel Sanyuan track, the shipment volume ranks first. The company achieved mass production of ncm523 in 15 years, mass production of ncm811 in 17 years, and high nickel ternary shipments ranked first in 20 and 21 years.
Continue the research and development of high nickel products and maintain the leading position of high nickel. The development of ni90 ultra-high nickel products has been realized in 20 years, the positive pole of ni90 solid-state battery has been supplied to terminal vehicle enterprises in batches in 21 years, and the lithium rich manganese based positive pole material has reached a small test.
Core highlights: fast production expansion + binding large customers to achieve volume increase, self-developed equipment + self supplied precursors are stable and predictable
Leading capacity expansion + deep binding with large customers, and the volume increase can be expected.
Rapid production expansion: the construction cycle of the company's high nickel cathode production line is 6-8 months, which can realize high-efficiency and rapid production expansion. We expect the company's production capacity of ternary cathode to reach 120000, 250000 and 350000 tons by the end of 21-23.
Deep binding key customers: customers include Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , honeycomb energy, ski, etc. Recently, supply agreements have been signed with Ningde (order of 100000 tons in 22 years, one supply of three yuan cathode in 23-25 years) and Funeng (order of about 31000 tons in 22 years).
Self developed equipment can reduce unit investment and provide self provided precursors to provide profit space. Benefiting from the rising price of lithium and other raw materials, there is a certain inventory income. The 21st year is a big year for the unit profit of the cathode factory. However, we believe that the company can reduce the investment cost through self-developed equipment + self supply of precursors and reduce the raw material cost. We expect to achieve stable unit profit in the future.
Equipment self research: the company adheres to the self research of equipment and production line. According to the unique technical requirements of high nickel ternary, the company designs and develops sintering equipment, coating equipment and material conveying system. The investment per 10000 tons is about 300 million yuan, 40-50% lower than that of its peers.
Self supply of precursors: the company's precursor production capacity in 21 years is 30000 tons. With the continuous production of 60000 tons in Linshan phase I, we expect the precursor production capacity of the company to reach 90000 tons by the end of 22. Due to the rapid release rate of positive capacity, we expect the self supply proportion in 22 years to be about 30%..
We expect that the company will ship 150000 / 26000 tons of cathode with a price of RMB 22 / 23, with a net profit of RMB 13000 and 12000 per ton and a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 2 / 3.2 billion. Considering the company's leading position in high nickel and in combination with the valuation level of peers, we will give the company a 22-year 35x valuation, with a corresponding market value of RMB 70 billion and a corresponding stock price of RMB 160. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is less than expected, the price fluctuation risk of high nickel products, the release of the company's production capacity is less than expected, the increase of high nickel penetration rate is less than expected, and the calculation is subjective
