\u3000\u3000 Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) (300590)
The market scale of Internet of things has a compound growth rate of more than 20% from 2019 to 2025, and the growth space of M2M segment is huge. According to GSMA data, the global Internet of things revenue is expected to grow to US $1.1 trillion by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025, of which the revenue of M2M connection market will reach US $56.2 billion. According to the forecast data of Analysys Mason limited, the global M2M equipment connection related revenue is expected to reach $46.568 billion in 2021, increase to $69.119 billion in 2024, and CAGR is expected to reach 14.1% from 2021 to 2024. It is expected that the company's business will continue to expand rapidly with the development of the Internet of things industry and its high-value segments.
From 2013 to 2020, the CAGR of R & D expenditure was 23.43%, contributing to the high growth of the company's performance. As of 2021h1, the company has 268 R & D personnel, 87 patents, 149 software copyrights and a number of core technologies. In addition to the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the company's R & D expenditure increased year by year, and the compound Growth Rate CAGR from 2013 to 2020 reached 23.43%. In the future, the company will continue to enrich the technical reserve related to software and hardware development and the reserve of R & D talents. High R & D will escort the continuous high growth of the company's performance.
In 2021, q1-q3 revenue increased by 98.76% year-on-year, net profit increased by 79.54% year-on-year, and the profit index showed excellent performance. In 2017, 2018 and 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of the company's revenue was 34.17% / 31.39% / 32.18% respectively, and the growth rate of the company's main competitor CalAmp was 4.22% / - 0.58% / 0.63% respectively. The company's gross profit margin remained above 45% from 2016 to 2019, the average value of four years exceeded the average value of comparable companies by 17pct, and the average value of net profit margin exceeded the average value of comparable companies by 24pct. The company's performance recovered rapidly after the pressure of the epidemic in 2020. In 2021, q1-q3 revenue increased by 98.76% year-on-year and net profit increased by 79.54% year-on-year. According to the company's performance forecast, the net profit in 2021 is expected to be about 155 million yuan ~ 183 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 71.33% ~ 102.28%. Benefiting from good cost control and deep R & D strength, the company is expected to maintain high profitability in the future.
In 2021h1, the company's short travel business revenue increased by 401.67% year-on-year, and the company laid out new products in many fields to build a new growth curve. The 2021 semi annual report disclosed that the company's sales revenue in the field of short travel transportation was 91.6391 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 401.67%. On December 16, 2021, the company signed a purchase order with Zhejiang Jinbang, and the cumulative amount of the order has exceeded 50% of the company's audited main business income in 2020. The company has newly launched video car networking products, plug and play OBD products and industrial routers, and has received the purchase intention of many downstream customers. In February 2021, the company successfully won the bid of CCB Internet of things tag reader procurement project (the procurement budget is about 100 million yuan (including tax)). It is expected that the order scale of the company's short travel business will expand rapidly, and the new product market will respond positively, which is expected to accelerate the growth of the company's performance.
Investment suggestion: as an industry-leading provider of wireless Internet of things equipment and solutions, the company's business model of building a solid R & D moat, deepening the application market and expanding the sales network has become mature and has significant growth. We expect the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 919 million / 14.47 million / 2.175 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 94.3% / 57.5% / 50.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 166 / 269 / 436 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 83.1% / 62.4% / 61.8%; The corresponding EPS is 0.54/0.88/1.43 yuan respectively. We give the company 41 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 36.08 yuan in 2022. For the first time, the investment rating of "Buy-A" is given.
Risk tips: the development of the Internet of things is less than expected, the expansion of new business is less than expected, the risk of intensified industry competition, the risk of disturbance of international relations and repeated outbreaks
