\u3000\u3000 Cangzhou Dahua Co.Ltd(600230) (600230)
Event:
On January 26, 2022, the company issued the announcement on the advance increase of annual performance in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 will be 200 million yuan to 24 million yuan, which is expected to increase by 163.06 million yuan to 203.06 million yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 441.48% to 549.78%.
Key investment points:
TDI has a complete industrial chain and obvious scale advantages
Cangzhou Dahua Co.Ltd(600230) is the first company in China to produce TDI on a large scale, with an existing capacity of 150000 tons and a planned capacity of 265000 tons. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2023. TDI China has a total production capacity of about 1.37 million tons, with a total of 8 manufacturers, including 2 foreign-funded enterprises, with a production capacity of 310000 tons for kostron and 160000 tons for BASF. There are 6 Chinese enterprises with a production capacity of 150000 tons / year in Cangzhou Dahua Co.Ltd(600230) , 120000 tons / year in Gansu Yinguang Juyin, 400000 tons / year in Wanhua and Wanhua Fuhua industry and trade, and 230000 tons / year in Yantai Juli.
The main raw materials of Cangzhou Dahua Co.Ltd(600230) TDI are liquid chlorine, nitric acid and caustic soda. The company has complete industrial chain, short transportation distance, low cost and stable supply, prominent comprehensive cost advantages and good circular economy. The production of the company is stable, and the cost is strictly controlled by vigorously implementing comprehensive budget management, centralized procurement, strict bidding and other measures; Strengthen internal management such as product quality control, innovation driven and technological transformation to reduce costs and increase efficiency. In the first three quarters of 2021, the TDI output of the company was 102300 tons, the sales volume was 111000 tons, and the operating revenue was 1.374 billion yuan.
TDI prices began to pick up and future profits are expected to increase
At the beginning of 2020, under the general pattern of public health emergencies, the expansion of 300000 tons of new production capacity of Wanhua and the change of supply and demand structure, TDI prices continued to decline and reached a new low in recent ten years. In 2021, the game between supply and demand in TDI market was fierce, and the price fluctuation of TDI increased. In 2021, the average price of TDI was 14463.84 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 17.80%; The price difference between TDI and toluene was 9000.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 2.59%. As of February 10, 2022, the average price of TDI in 2022 was 17985.37 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 24.35%; The price difference between TDI and toluene was 12316.66 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 36.85%. With the rise of TDI price, the company’s profit is expected to increase.
Ionic membrane caustic soda to maintain the stability of the industrial chain
As the basic chemical raw material of the national economy, the caustic soda industry has a capacity of 160000 tons (converted into 100). While meeting the production demand of TDI, the company sells some products to the surrounding areas. The company has vigorously developed small and medium-sized customers, developed multiple users in surrounding areas such as Tianjin, Huanghua and Bazhou, tapped the needs of existing customers, made the sales price closer to the market, gradually got rid of the dependence on large customers, and also ensured the maximization of the company’s interests. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company produced 3500500 tons of ion-exchange membrane caustic soda, sold 285700 tons, and achieved an operating revenue of 139 million yuan.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 235 / 322 / 434 million respectively, and the PE will be 34, 25 and 19 respectively. Comprehensively considering the operation of the company, the “buy” rating is given for the first time.
Risk tips: the risk of project construction falling short of expectations, the risk of price decline of main products, the risk of price fluctuation of main raw materials, the risk of international trade friction, the risk of environmental protection and safe production, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation, the risk of intensified competition in the same industry, and the risk of product R & D and application.
