\u3000\u3000 Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) (688008)
Event: the company released the 2021 annual performance express, which realized an operating revenue of 2.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 830 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%. Among them, Q4 company's performance in 2021 was brilliant: the operating revenue in a single quarter was 970 million yuan, an increase of 11.6% month on month and 172.9% year-on-year; The net profit was 320 million yuan, an increase of 54.8% month on month and 40.2% year-on-year.
Ddr5 increment can be expected, and Tianjin capture server has made breakthrough progress. The company's sales volume grew steadily in 2021, among which Q4 performance increased significantly. The main reasons are as follows: 1) the company's ddr5 memory interface chip and memory module supporting chip were officially mass produced and shipped; 2) Continuous development of CPU business.
Ddr5 mass production and shipment, driven by the international CPU leader, the company is expected to usher in strong downstream demand in 2022. Interconnection chips achieved a revenue of 1.72 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% and a gross profit margin of 66.7%; Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 600 million yuan in a single quarter, with a month on month increase of 40.0%, a year-on-year increase of 76.6% and a gross profit margin of 69.2%. The company has nearly 50% of the global memory interface chip market share, its DDR4 shipments are stable, ddr5 has been shipped in small quantities, and pcie4 0 / 5.0 retimer chip is also steadily imported by customers. Driven by the concept of meta universe, there is a strong demand for higher performance servers that can bring better user experience. Under the leadership of international CPU leaders, ddr5 and pcie5 0 is expected to usher in a demand explosion. The company is continuing the second generation of ddr5 and pcie6 The R & D of 0retimer chip and the R & D of PMIC, SPD and TS supporting chips are also in development planning. With the improvement of ddr5 penetration rate with higher ASP and higher gross profit margin, the company is expected to further benefit as the leader of memory interface chip.
The Tianjin capture server platform has blossomed and has broad development space. The revenue of Jinchuan server platform was 850 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 2750.9% and a gross profit margin of 10.2%; Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 370 million yuan in a single quarter. In the early stage of market promotion and customer cultivation of Jinchuan server platform, the proportion of revenue increased significantly: Q4 revenue accounted for 38.1% in 2021. At present, Jinchuan server platform mainly serves the red market, and the organization predicts that the market has a broad space of about US $5 billion. With the continuous iteration of Jinchuan server, the market share of the company in the promising server market is expected to be further improved.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. From 2021 to 23, the company's revenue is expected to be RMB 2.56/45.3/6.21 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 8.3/13.7/2.02 billion respectively. Considering that ddrpe's unit price is 75 yuan and the company's gross profit is 90.2 times higher than that of the company in 2025. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: supply chain risk, Global trade friction risk, covid-19 epidemic risk, exchange gain and loss risk, investment income and fair value fluctuation risk.
