Looking back on Thursday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly higher, and the stock index fluctuated repeatedly at the beginning of the session. With the support of the Chinese prefix, the performance of the Shanghai index was relatively strong, while the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) plunged sharply in the session, the gem ushered in a sharp decline, and the subject stocks fell one after another; In the afternoon, heavyweights continued to support the bottom, subject stocks pulled back slightly, the Shanghai index picked up, and the gem index continued the weak pattern.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the gem index is dragged down by the continuous sharp decline in the direction of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and medicine, and there is no signal of stabilization in the technical side. In the short term, it is still recommended to watch carefully. In the direction of weighted blue chip, after the short-term positive rebound, we should also consider the possibility of the market stepping back. From the perspective of trading volume, the liquidity of the market after the festival has reached a higher level than that in the early stage, It means that the trading opportunities are decreasing, which is reflected in the fast rotation of sector themes on the disk, and it is difficult to participate. In operation, it is recommended to light the index and heavy individual stocks, cautiously pursue the rise, and try to avoid crowded hot tracks. In the short term, we can focus on the recovery line and digital economy, and in the medium and long term, we should pay attention to the allocation opportunities of Hong Kong stocks .
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the trend of the Shanghai index on Thursday was tenacious, while the trend of the gem index was weak. The market style is biased towards blue chips, undervalued stocks are stronger, while growth stocks continue to adjust. The net capital inflow to the North expanded, and the pattern of strong Shanghai and weak Shenzhen was continuously presented. Considering the sustained efforts of the steady growth policy, the market is expected to stabilize and rebound, pay attention to the gains and losses of the annual line and the rotation of the sector . In terms of operation, it is suggested to pay attention to finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances, building materials, building decoration and other industries.
For the future, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that the market hot spots continue to show the characteristics of diversified distribution. After a sustained rebound in the short term, the Shanghai index is once again approaching the 3500 point integer mark and the 3540 point area of the annual line. Whether the stock index can continue to rebound in the future still depends on the strong cooperation of the leading hot spots and trading volume. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in policy and capital .
In addition, Huajin securities mentioned that throughout the year, it is expected that the A-share market will show a V-shaped trend in 2022. In the first half of the year, China’s monetary policy was mainly stable, the performance growth rate of listed companies fell, and the liquidity will actually be neutral and tight under the background of continuous contraction overseas. The performance valuation will kill both. It is difficult to significantly improve the risk appetite, and the market may need to continue to look for support; In the second half of the year, the counter cyclical adjustment policy is expected to exert its force, the industrial drive will shift from the old economy to the new economy, China’s economic growth model will change from high growth to high-quality development, the residents’ asset allocation will gradually change from real estate to capital market, and A shares will return to the slow bull road.
In terms of industry configuration, the agency further pointed out that had a double kill in performance valuation in the first half of the year, and preferred defensive varieties, such as undervalued bancassurance, construction and mandatory consumption . At the same time, in the context of PPI downturn, the boom of the midstream industry is gradually picking up, and auto parts and mechanical equipment are expected to benefit. In the second half of the year, it returned to growth and added endogenous booming industries with high performance certainty, such as new energy, big technology and national defense industry. In terms of concept, it is recommended to focus on the reform of central enterprises and post epidemic recovery.
Macroscopically, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that the total data of social financing and credit in January this year significantly exceeded expectations. However, structurally speaking, the endogenous financing demand of entities is indeed still weak. In fact, at the beginning of each round of big easing, the endogenous power of the economy is insufficient, and there is often the problem of high proportion of short-term loans. However, both short-term funds and medium and long-term funds can be applied. Therefore, as long as the policy continues to be loose, the economy will eventually improve and the financing structure will also improve. We continue to maintain confidence in the next policy strength and maintain the early view. The financing in the first quarter continued to improve and is expected to be .
Guosheng Securities said that the overseas market performed well during the Spring Festival, which significantly boosted investor sentiment. The opening of A-Shares in the year of the tiger became an important phased low in the market as scheduled. After the festival, with the appropriate advance of the policy end and the expected warming of the two sessions, the Shanghai index is expected to return to the rising channel, considering that the pattern of strong and deep weakness in Shanghai has not ended, it is suggested to maintain the allocation proportion of value higher than growth .
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that before the effective upward breakthrough in the market, it should still control the overall position and be suitable for low absorption, “steady growth” and “post epidemic era” will become the main logic driving the market operation . It pays attention to traditional infrastructure such as building materials and undervalued sectors such as bank insurance. It is suggested to combine the performance and cost performance, Appropriate layout of digital economy, reform of central enterprises, tourism hotels, air transportation and other theme sectors.
In addition, Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) believes that at present, high dividend industry targets such as banking, coal, steel and real estate can be focused on. From the perspective of valuation and dividend return, banking, coal, steel, real estate and other industries have the characteristics of high dividend rate and undervalued value. From the perspective of market characteristics, their undervalued value attribute, better chip structure and low risk preference market environment. At the same time, such sectors are continuously catalyzed by the “stable growth” policy, which reflects the attributes of good defense and attack, and has high allocation value .
