On February 9, the A-share communication sector index rose sharply for the first time after the festival, closing up 3.5%. Plate leader China Mobile ushered in its first daily limit, with its share price reaching a new high since its listing and a market value of more than trillion yuan. Under the leadership of China Mobile, relevant stocks in the communication sector have performed well.
According to the data, as of February 9, a total of 71 companies in the communication industry issued annual performance forecasts, of which 36 companies' net profits increased year-on-year, accounting for more than half; 27 companies suffered performance losses, and the performance of 8 companies was pre reduced.
\u3000\u3000 "Most enterprises in the communication industry are in the middle of the industrial chain. In 2021, under the influence of adverse factors such as chip shortage, rising raw materials and rising freight rates, some enterprises with weak bargaining power may be difficult to transfer the cost pressure to the downstream in the short term, which leads to poor performance of some enterprises in the industry. However, with the solution of chip supply problem and upstream raw materials With the stability of prices, these enterprises are expected to rebound in 2022. " Xia Qingying, chief analyst of TMT of Wanlian securities, told the reporter of Securities Daily.
From the data point of view, industry leaders and other related companies performed better. Zte Corporation(000063) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 6.5 billion yuan to 7.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52% to 69%; Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies Co.Ltd(600498) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 219 million yuan to 329 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 115% to 222%; China Bester Group Telecom Co.Ltd(603220) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 182 million yuan to 218 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 219% to 282%; Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 155 million yuan to 183 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 72% to 102%.
"The weak overall performance of the communication industry is in line with expectations, because the customers of the communication industry are mainly the three major operators in China and Internet giants outside China, and these enterprises have essentially passed the development stage of high-speed investment." Said Wang Sheng, research director of Shanghai jingling Investment Management Co., Ltd.
According to the information of the Ministry of industry and information technology, it is expected that more than 2 million 5g base stations will be built in China by the end of 2022. It is reported that by the end of 2021, China has built and opened more than 1.39 million 5g base stations. This means that there will be about 600000 5g base station construction tasks of the three major operators in 2022, which is basically the same as the actual construction number of 650000 in 2021.
"When the number of 5g base station construction in 2022 is basically the same as that in 2021, the total 5g related investment will not increase significantly in 2022, which makes the growth rate of capital expenditure of operators limited." A researcher in the communication industry of a private equity fund in Guangzhou told reporters.
According to the above researchers, according to the plans of the three operators, the total capital expenditure in 2021 is about 340.6 billion yuan, and the 5g related investment is about 184.7 billion yuan; It is predicted that the capital expenditure of the three major operators in 2022 will be about 350 billion yuan, and the 5g related investment will be about 19.4 billion yuan.
So, how does the communication industry perform in the year of the tiger? Will there be differentiation in sub industries?
Xia Qingying believes that: "From the performance of the performance forecast, the performance of enterprises in high boom tracks such as Internet of things and optical devices is still stable. It is expected that these tracks will still be the key areas of investment in 2022. In addition, 5g will significantly improve the marginal performance of operators, and with the promotion of 5g, the b-end business will also open new growth space for operators. It is suggested to pay attention to the operator sector. From the perspective of valuation, the three major games Business valuations are at historically low levels, and the dividend yield is high. At present, it has high investment value. "
"The three operators will have greater opportunities in the first half of the year. In addition, there will be greater opportunities for the Internet of things, Internet of things modules and Internet of things chips, and the Internet Data Center (IDC) sector will be relatively stable." Wang Sheng said.
