According to the statistics of Mysteel and Xinhua Finance and economics, in this period (February 7-february 10), the social inventory of major steel products in China was 15.3713 million tons, an increase of 1.4745 million tons over the previous period and 6.206 million tons over the same period last month; The rebar inventory was 7.8471 million tons, an increase of 835900 tons over the previous period.
The total inventory of the five varieties in this period was 21.8967 million tons, an increase of 1.5965 million tons compared with that before the festival. In terms of supply, the supply of the five major steel varieties in this period decreased month on month, and the supply of building materials and sectors decreased. After the festival, some enterprises implemented production reduction and restriction plans, and there were still production reduction expectations in the later stage, but the downward space of output is expected to be limited. In terms of demand, the consumption of major steel varieties continued a sharp downward trend month on month on Friday. At present, it is the first week after the festival, and the downstream construction has not yet returned to the previous level. It is expected that the steel consumption will take two weeks to improve. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of the five major varieties of steel has increased for five consecutive weeks. From the perspective of the expected increase in inventory in the later period, the cumulative days after the Spring Festival in 2018, 2019 and 2021 are 20 to 21 days, except for the 41 days affected by the epidemic in 2020. It is expected that the cumulative days this year will be relatively consistent with this.
Since this year, under the background of weak steel consumption in the off-season, the main reason for the rise in steel prices is the market’s policy expectation of steady growth. At present, the recovery expectation of steel consumption in the first quarter cannot be verified temporarily, but the steel price has reflected the optimistic expectation to a considerable extent. Therefore, before the implementation of the steady growth policy, the steel price is expected to be stable.
(Note: in this paper, the total social inventory of steel = 35 urban thread inventory + 35 urban wire stock + 33 urban hot rolling inventory + 23 urban cold rolling inventory + 31 urban medium and heavy sector inventory)
figure changes in inventory of major steel products and major regions in China
Data source: my steel network
[steel “finance” theory] is a column with the interpretation of the steel market as the main content jointly created by the project team of Xinhua Financial Index and Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) . The content covers the main steel inventory and supply and demand changes in China, and provides authoritative, professional and timely industry information services. Xinhua Finance and economics is published on the whole website every week for the reference of market institutions and investors. This article does not constitute any investment suggestions. Xinhua Finance is a national financial information platform contracted by Xinhua news agency.
