Xinhua Finance and economics, Beijing, February 10 data show that in January, M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year and 9% last month. RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, up from 1.13 trillion yuan last month. The scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, compared with 2.37 trillion yuan last month.
Whether the credit can achieve a “good start” in January may have a great impact on the rhythm and strength of the stable growth policy in the future. Therefore, this month’s financial data has attracted much attention. On the whole, this month’s financial data exceeded market expectations, and major indicators such as new credit and social finance hit a monthly statistical high.
At the end of January, M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. M2 growth picked up significantly, exceeding market expectations. Since the end of last year, monetary and financial policies have begun to support steady growth. The central bank cut the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points on December 15 last year to release long-term funds, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and improve the monetary multiplier. At the same time, the banking industry has increased its credit supply, the new RMB loans are significantly higher than the level of last month and the same period last year, and the ability of credit derivation has been enhanced. On the other hand, the proactive fiscal policy supported steady growth. In January, a new fiscal deposit of 584.9 billion yuan was added, an increase of 585.1 billion yuan less than that in the same period last year, which is equivalent to increasing money supply. In addition, the growth rate of M2 fell by 0.7 percentage points in January last year, forming a low base, which also played a certain role in the rise of M2 this month.
In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, a new record in a single month, an increase of 2.85 trillion yuan and 394.4 billion yuan respectively over the previous month and the same period last year. The banking industry has increased its support for the real economy and made a “good start” in credit. In terms of structure, the new loans of the enterprise sector were 3.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7 trillion yuan and 810 billion yuan respectively over the previous month and the same period last year. The scale of new loans to the enterprise sector accounted for 84.4% of all new loans, a new high since February last year. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 60 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting the start of infrastructure investment and other projects; Enterprise short-term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 434.5 billion yuan year-on-year; Due to the sufficient credit line, the scale of bill financing decreased significantly compared with the previous month. New loans to the residential sector increased by 843 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 427 billion yuan, and short-term loans and medium and long-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan and 742.4 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 227.2 billion yuan and 202.4 billion yuan respectively, reflecting the decline in residents’ consumption and house purchase demand.
At the end of January, the scale of social financing reached 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, continuing the upward trend. Social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan this month, a new high in a single month, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan and 984.2 billion yuan respectively over the previous month and the same period last year. On balance sheet loans, government bonds and direct financing made a great contribution to the increase of social finance this month. (1) The newly increased RMB loans under the social finance caliber increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, which was a monthly statistical high. (2) Under the background of financial front force, the issuance of government bonds was accelerated, with a net financing of 602.6 billion yuan this month, an increase of 358.9 billion yuan year-on-year. (3) In direct financing, the issuance of corporate bonds was accelerated, with a net financing of 579.9 billion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan year-on-year; Stock financing was 143.9 billion yuan, an increase of 44.8 billion yuan year-on-year. (4) Off balance sheet financing increased by 447.9 billion yuan, a slight increase of 32.8 billion yuan year-on-year. Although off balance sheet financing changed the previous reduction trend, it was basically consistent with the law of increasing in January last year. In terms of structure, entrusted loans increased by 42.8 billion yuan and trust loans decreased by 68 billion yuan. Due to sufficient bank credit lines, undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 473.1 billion yuan, but a year-on-year decrease of 17.1 billion yuan.
On the whole, the growth rate of M2 accelerated and rebounded this month, and the new credit and social finance slightly exceeded expectations, reflecting the forward force of monetary and fiscal policies to support steady growth. From the perspective of financial data, the financing situation of enterprises has improved and the demand has rebounded, but the consumer demand of residents is still weak. In the next stage, steady growth should continue to expand domestic demand and stabilize external demand. At present, the tightening path of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is gradually clear. It is expected to start raising interest rates after the end of bond purchase in March, and will start to shrink the table in due time. China’s macro policy should make good use of the window before the substantive contraction of the Fed’s policy, make good use of the aggregate and structural policies in view of the insufficient total demand, strengthen the coordination and cooperation between fiscal policy and monetary policy, reverse market expectations as soon as possible, boost confidence and ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range.
(author: Wen bin, chief researcher of China China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) and Feng Bai, researcher)
