insurance capital: it is expected that the oversold rebound window is coming
It is expected that the adjustment at the index level is coming to an end, the oversold rebound window is coming, and the market will gradually reverse its pessimism and turn to positive again. Large insurance companies began to increase their positions after the Spring Festival holiday, focusing on the directions of “steady growth”, “high prosperity” and “over falling stocks”.
Under continuous adjustment, some people panic and others calm down. The reporter of Shanghai Securities News recently learned that large insurance companies have begun to increase their positions after the Spring Festival holiday, and predicted that the adjustment at the index level is coming to an end, the oversold rebound window will come, and the market will gradually reverse pessimism and turn to positive again.
“In January, especially after the Spring Festival holiday, we have been increasing the level of equity positions.” The equity investment manager of a large insurance asset management company predicted that there would be no systemic risk in the market this year and was still firmly optimistic about a shares. “Looking at the world, the A-share market still has strong attraction.”
market sentiment gradually turned positive
Many equity investment principals of insurance institutions said that the market factors for the continuous decline of A-Shares in the near future mainly focused on: worrying about whether China’s steady growth policy will be less than expected and the poor effect of credit easing; Worried that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy too quickly and the overseas liquidity pressure will be transmitted to China; Worry about the negative feedback of capital in the process of decline.
So, what are the positive factors that trigger the investment attitude of insurance companies to change?
First, after the central bank emphasized “avoiding credit collapse” in mid January, according to the grassroots research learned by insurance institutions, the credit supply in late January was significantly stronger, benefiting from the impulse of bills and urban investment platform. It is expected that the total amount of new credit in January is better than the previous expectation of the market.
Second, from the price performance of US stocks, US bonds and other assets, most of the tightening expectations of the Federal Reserve have been included in or even short-term overshoot, and the market fluctuations caused by the expectation of monetary policies of major overseas economies have been gradually digested.
Third, before the Spring Festival, a series of guiding signals of “stabilizing the market” appeared at the micro level, including the announcement of large-scale self purchase by public funds and the liberalization of large-scale subscription by some star funds.
increase positions, steady growth, high prosperity and other sectors
Which sectors have large insurance companies added positions? According to the reporter’s interview, the layout of insurance capital basically focuses on “stable growth”, “high prosperity” and “over falling stocks”.
The equity investment manager of a large insurance asset management company revealed that after the recent continuous adjustment of a shares, growth stocks have fallen to a reasonable price and are still optimistic about the consumption and technology industries. “It is expected that some traditional industries with fixed valuation and steady growth will have investment opportunities this year. At present, the company is actively arranging.” He said.
“We predict that the downward exploration space of A-Shares is limited, patiently wait for the market to ‘grind the bottom’, and there is no need to be pessimistic about the future market.” The quantitative investment manager of a large insurance institution said that the current market adjustment is somewhat excessive. In the future, with the disclosure of the annual reports of listed companies, some enterprises with good performance still have investment opportunities.
The head of equity investment of another large insurance institution expressed the importance of “benefiting from the logic of steady growth and maintaining a high industrial boom in the medium term”. He believes that with the coming of the window period of oversold rebound, we can pay attention to investment opportunities in the following three directions: first, under the background of counter cyclical policy, infrastructure and other “stable growth” sectors will have phased performance; The second reason is that the performance of aviation and tourism stocks hit the bottom, and the second reason is that they are optimistic about the rebound of the epidemic situation; Third, look for sectors with high prosperity, such as new energy vehicles and clean energy industry chains under the theme of carbon neutralization, as well as semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals and machinery related to “specialization and innovation”.
The head of the equity Department of a Chinese funded insurance institution in Beijing said that this year, the A-share market may show a process of gradually easing the pressure and gradually clarifying the prospect. Some emerging fields, such as low-carbon economy and digital economy, are accelerating their development driven by technological progress and policy support. At present, we can focus on two main lines of undervalued value: first, financial real estate chain and infrastructure chain; Second, small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks with low participation of large funds.
Fund: two wheel drive spring market can still be expected
Positive factors are accumulating, and there is no need to be pessimistic at the current time point. Although it is determined to be optimistic about the investment logic of “stable growth”, the fund still takes “real growth” as the key layout direction. Driven by the two wheels of “steady growth” and “real growth”, the spring market is still worth looking forward to.
After the Spring Festival holiday, the signs of A-share volatility are becoming more and more obvious. On February 9, the three major A-share indexes all closed red, and the trading volume also increased. In particular, the gem index rebounded by 1.30%, ending the previous “falling” trend and giving the market a “reassurance”.
Has the track stock been adjusted in place? What are the future market opportunities? Recently, a number of public and private equity companies have intensively released their interpretation of the market. In the view of the fund, positive factors are accumulating, and there is no need to be pessimistic at the current time point. Although it is determined to be optimistic about the investment logic of “stable growth”, the organization still takes “real growth” as the key layout direction. The Fund believes that under the two wheel drive of “steady growth” and “real growth”, the spring market is still worth looking forward to.
phased “emotional bottom” is emerging
Three trading days after the festival, the Shanghai Stock Index walked out of three consecutive positive, but the differentiation between the main board and the gem worried the market. In this regard, institutions generally said that the recent gem adjustment was mainly caused by rumors, and there were obvious signs of panic repair, and positive factors were accumulating. Yesterday, the gem index stopped falling and rebounded, or became the evidence of the “emotional bottom” proved by the market.
Huaxia Fund said that the mainstream track adjustment is mainly affected by bad news and rumors, but it is not suitable to be overly pessimistic at present. From the perspective of internal and external factors, on the one hand, due to the stabilization of the overseas market, the main external risks of continuous adjustment before the A-share Festival have slowed down and increased; On the other hand, the steady growth policy is expected to be better, the effect has initially appeared, and the fundamental confidence is expected to be gradually reshaped.
Yinhua Fund also believes that although external uncertainty still exists, since the outbreak of the epidemic, China’s monetary policy has always adhered to the tone of “focusing on myself and stability”, and there is still sufficient room for follow-up. Now the “policy bottom” has been confirmed, the phased “emotional bottom” is beginning to appear, the “growth bottom” of economic development and the performance of listed companies is expected to appear in the first and second quarters, and the market probability is gradually repaired.
Xingshi investment frankly said that positive factors are accumulating, the steady growth policy is gradually put into force, and the policy effect will gradually appear. In January 2022, the expected index of manufacturing production and operation activities was 57.5%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points over December 2021. Manufacturing enterprises are optimistic about the market development prospect. The pressure of “weakening expectation” may have been marginally relieved. Many industries are also in a reasonable valuation range, and there are still structural opportunities in the market.
left hand “steady growth” right hand “true growth”
It is worth noting that although it is determined to be optimistic about the investment logic of “stable growth”, growth stocks are still the “good heart” of the fund. Especially after the in-depth adjustment in the early stage, many funds have taken growth stocks as the next key layout direction. “With the left hand ‘steady growth’ and the right hand ‘real growth’, the spring market can still be expected under the two wheel drive.
”Said a founder of head private placement in Shanghai.
Yinhua Fund said that in the short term, “steady growth” is still the main line with the highest visibility, and is optimistic about the performance of the consumer sector and the real estate infrastructure industry chain. Growth stocks may still have consolidation demand in the short term, but the allocation cost performance has increased significantly. In the future, we will look for the main line with high growth rate and medium and long-term growth logic in the year along the scientific and technological innovation cycle and national strategic direction, such as new energy, VR, etc. In addition, Yinhua Fund added that it will continue to track the sectors with undervalued prosperity in 2021, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and hotel tourism. If the fundamental inflection point is established, it may have a more obvious relative performance in the year.
Liu Xiaolong, founder of juming investment, also said that the valuation level of several representative hot track leading stocks has been adjusted from the previous high to the current basically reasonable state.
The fund also showed optimistic expectations for the pharmaceutical, new energy and other tracks with large fluctuations in the near future..
Danyi investment believes that the continuous decline of the pharmaceutical sector is mainly due to the deepening of demand side reform in recent years, which makes the future development space of many products unpredictable. In this context, the follow-up investment mainly focuses on the subdivided industries with predictable demand, stable and upward prosperity and continuously optimized competition pattern, such as the subdivided fields of scientific research reagents, equipment and some APIs in the upstream of the pharmaceutical industry chain.
A 10 billion private placement person in Beijing believes that the decline of the new energy sector is more due to the fear of high valuations, but after adjustment, the valuations of some sub circuits are more reasonable in the medium and long term, and the follow-up will still be the direction of heavy positions of the company. Specifically, the new energy of the power supply end, the transformation of the transmission and distribution network at the power grid end, the electrification of the energy consumption terminal and the supporting energy storage of all links deserve attention.
For the media stocks that have been active since the second half of last year, Lu Yiqiao, manager of Galaxy sports and Entertainment Fund, said that the cultural and entertainment industry will undergo great changes in the fundamentals of the industry under the background of the vigorous growth of the new generation of Internet applications. From the perspective of valuation, the CSI sports and leisure index has fallen from 5452 points in 2015 to 1739 points at present. During this period, it has experienced a long period of consolidation and digestion, with a large upward space.
securities companies: optimistic about the research perspective of “lowering” the main line of valuation repair
“Valuation repair” is still the main line of the current market, and value stocks are expected to continue to outperform overvalued growth stocks. Recently, under the background of “high-low switching” of market style, more subject matter with low valuation and stock price has been favored by institutions.
Yesterday, China Mobile hit the daily limit for the first time after its A-share listing, and its share price also hit a new high since its listing. The stock has risen sharply for two consecutive days, with an intraday rise of more than 7% on February 8. Large scale research of institutions and intensive bullish of securities companies are important catalysts for its rise. Recently, in the context of “high-low switching” of market style, more subject matter with low valuation and stock price has been favored by institutions, and the institutions that went to the research rank high.
The rise of China Mobile’s share price occurred after the implementation of the “green shoe mechanism”, which is related to many factors, such as the increase of its controllers’ holdings, the pre increase of annual report performance and so on. On the eve of the company’s share price surge, China Mobile not only received a pile of research from institutions, but also issued in-depth research reports from a number of head securities companies, which played a catalytic role in the upward trend of share price.
Some market participants said that under the background of A-share market differentiation and style “high-low switching”, the perspective of institutional research is also “lowering”: some varieties with low valuation, low share price position and relatively stable performance have received more attention, which has a certain “wind vane” significance.
On February 7, China Mobile announced that on January 21, the company received 23 research institutions such as China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) . According to the survey summary, investors asked about the progress of the company’s Hong Kong stock repurchase, the capital expenditure arrangement and planning in 2022, the business deployment of yuancosmos, and whether it has begun to use self-developed chips.
Since February 8, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) and other securities companies have intensively released research reports. Among them, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) gives the company a share target price of 75 yuan / share.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that China Mobile is a leading global operator. The company has leading profitability, high-quality assets, good cash flow performance and significant advantages in network resources and user scale. China Mobile’s competitive advantage in the 5g era is expected to be further consolidated and is optimistic about the good development of China Mobile’s business and the continuous growth of its performance. Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that the inflection point of the industry has been established. Driven by the improvement of 5g penetration and the strong growth of innovative business, it continues to be optimistic about the development expectation of telecom operators.
From the recent institutional research trends, institutional funds may be carrying out a new round of position adjustment and share exchange, in which public funds may be the “main force” of position adjustment. Data show that since February 1 this year, nearly 1000 sub institutions have participated in the research of 19 companies. From the type of research institutions, fund companies account for the highest proportion, with more than 300 times of participation.
Statistics show that the subject matter with low valuation level is one of the key points of recent institutional research. Since February 1, among the seven A-share companies surveyed by more than 50 institutions, except one with a loss and one with a rolling P / E ratio of more than 100 times, the P / E ratio of other companies is mostly in the range of more than 20 times to more than 30 times, and one company is less than 20 times.
From the perspective of industry distribution, recently, enterprises in construction decoration, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, light industry manufacturing and other industries have frequently appeared on the research list. For example, Joyvio Food Co.Ltd(300268) was investigated by 8 institutions and Hongrun Construction Group Co.Ltd(002062) was investigated by 2 institutions.
Echoing the agency’s excavation of undervalued stocks with high “safety margin” in the research, since this year, the performance of undervalued blue chips has been significantly stronger than that of track stocks with large cumulative increase and high valuation. Since February 1, after falling by 12.45% in January, the gem index has further fallen by 0.87%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 1.93% in the same period.
The mainstream view of institutions is that “valuation repair” is still the main line of the current market, and value stocks are expected to continue to outperform high valuation growth stocks. Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) it is expected that the short-term style of the market is expected to continue to switch to undervalued varieties, and the prosperity of the infrastructure sector is expected to rise in the first quarter of this year. It is suggested to continue to explore investment opportunities in the construction industry along the two main lines of prefabricated construction and undervalued blue chip.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that historically, in the “steady growth” spring market, A-Shares tend to value first and then grow. For example, undervalued financial, real estate, new infrastructure and other sectors will rise first. Tan Li, the value style investment director of Harvest Fund, said she was optimistic about the large cap value stocks represented by banks and real estate. In addition, small cap growth stocks will still have more opportunities for individual stocks. In some subdivided manufacturing industries, excellent companies will stand out and need to be selected from bottom to top. Most of them have the logic of industrial upgrading, which is the strongest investment logic in the medium and long term. However, some stocks have increased significantly in the short term, which needs to be rebalanced.
