Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. in the short term, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) collapsed the gem again. There are still repeated in the short term, but with the support of many parties, the downward space is relatively limited. In addition, under the market differentiation, the structural market remains the same, and we continue to be optimistic about the spring market and grasp the phased opportunities.
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both opened high, and began to fluctuate after the opening. Blue chips such as finance continued to perform, and the Shanghai index ushered in a shock. While Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell sharply during the session, the gem suffered a sharp decline, and theme stocks fell one after another. At the end of the day, heavyweights continued to support the bottom, while theme stocks pulled back slightly, and the market ushered in a rebound. On the disk, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the rise, while coal, commercial trade, social services and media led the rise, while power equipment fell sharply, and household appliances, beauty care, automobiles and communications led the decline.
Since the bear market adjustment, the decline of nearly 300.75% on the gem has not continued since last year. The decline of gem is mainly due to the continuous decline of subject stocks, which is an adjustment from the end of the fourth quarter of last year. The recent acceleration of bottoming is also closely related to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . After all, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has a large weight and has a decisive impact on the gem index. Therefore, if Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is excluded, the decline of GEM may not be so large.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) recently announced the performance forecast, and the annual net profit is expected to be 14-16.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 150.75% - 195.52%. This is also the highest profit level since Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was listed in 2018. However, in terms of news, the previous adverse rumors of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) also have a certain impact, and what is more noteworthy is that under the background of the excellent sales situation of new energy vehicles, more and more competitors begin to enter the market, and the division of market share also brings competition to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , which may be the reason why the market is more worried after the continuous sharp rise of share price. Because Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has a large weight on the gem, the continuous decline of its share price has a serious drag on the gem.
In fact, it's not just Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . The decline of track stocks in this round has not been a day or two. The sharp rise in the past two years has actually faced high valuation and rich profits, as well as the risk of distribution. The Fed's expectation of raising interest rates may be a fuse. In the process of the decline of US technology stocks, Chinese institutions also ushered in a wave of faction. At the same time, China's monetary easing cycle opened, and undervalued varieties ushered in "Tianshi". Under the repair of valuation and the improvement of make-up expectation, it also ushered in the attention of funds. Under the "high-low switching", the seesaw market is still relatively obvious.
Therefore, the market is still a structural market, especially since the year of the tiger, the Shanghai index has continued to rebound and the gem has continued to decline. In fact, the structural market has been more obvious. However, with the support of monetary easing and policies, the market is not so pessimistic, and there are still more structural opportunities. Compared with before the Spring Festival, market sentiment has also rebounded. Technology stocks such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) still have performance support, and there is less possibility of greater decline. Once the incremental capital is involved, it is still possible to lead the recovery of the gem.
Therefore, after continuous adjustment, we are not pessimistic about the market. On the contrary, when the emotional bottom is approaching, the periodic multiple "bottoms" of the market usher in resonance, and the restorative market and spring market are expected to kick off. At present, we can consider gradually lurking and configuring the market in the first quarter.
