Since the beginning of 2022, the 10-year yield of the United States has once reached a high of 1.96%, increasing by nearly 60BP in recent two months. It is very similar to the soaring period of U.S. bond yields from February to March 2021. Since the beginning of 2022, there has also been a significant outperformance of the high dividend sector and the low P / E sector, in which the high dividend sector has increased or decreased by 1%, the low P / E sector has increased or decreased by 4%, while the State Securities Exchange 2000 has increased or decreased by – 7% and the high P / E sector has increased or decreased by – 13% in the same period. Among the top 30 stocks that currently disclose the dividend yield in 2021, the average rise and fall since the beginning of 2022 is – 2.2%. The main line of defense sector allocation in the first quarter is still the main way.
A total of 2540 A-share listed companies issued performance forecasts for 2021, accounting for 53.86% of the 4716 A-share listed companies. Among them, 1695 of the 3141 listed companies on the main board disclosed, with a disclosure rate of 53.96%; Of the 1104 listed companies on the gem, 708 have been disclosed, with a disclosure rate of 64.13%; 176 of 387 companies on the science and Innovation Board disclosed, with a disclosure rate of 45.48%; Nine of the 84 companies of the Beijing stock exchange disclosed, with a disclosure rate of 10.71%.
After the 2540 listed companies of A-Shares that have disclosed the performance forecast are divided into industries according to the industry classification standard of Shenwan, the growth rate of net profit in different industries is analyzed according to the upper and lower limits of the average growth rate of net profit in the forecast. Benefiting from the rise in commodity prices in the first three quarters of 2021, the overall earnings performance of the strong cycle industry in 2021 is bright. Among them, the top five industries in terms of the average upper and lower limits of net profit growth are nonferrous metals (the upper and lower limits of net profit growth are 271.61% ~ 323.62%, the same below), coal (275.22% ~ 307.44%), basic chemical industry (187.71% ~ 237.18%), iron and steel (131.49% ~ 166.65%) and power equipment (70.85% ~ 121.23%).
Among the listed companies that have disclosed their performance, 184 exceeded expectations, accounting for 16.23%; 344 were in line with expectations, accounting for 30.34%; 606 were less than expected, accounting for 53.43%. The top five industries that exceeded the expected proportion of individual shares are: 6 of the 13 disclosed listed companies in the non bank financial industry exceeded the expectation, accounting for 46.15%; Among the 12 disclosed listed companies in the household appliance industry, 4 outperformed expectations, accounting for 33.33%; Among the 20 listed companies that have been disclosed in the coal industry, 6 have exceeded expectations, accounting for 30%; Among the 108 listed companies that have been disclosed in pharmaceutical biology, 29 have exceeded expectations, accounting for 26.85%; Among the 74 listed companies of power equipment that have been disclosed, 19 have exceeded expectations, accounting for 25.68%.
In the current period (February 9), the risk premium of A-Shares was 0.74%, compared with -0.04% in the previous period. The overall profitability of A-Shares improved significantly, PE continued to revise downward, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds was 2.73% in the current period, which continued to maintain the investment value of A-share risk premium.
In the current period, semiconductor erp-0.81%, a change of 0.12% over the previous period, in the highest range of risk premium; Pharmaceutical and biological erp0 54%, compared with -0.04% in the previous period, in the range of high risk premium; National defense and military industry erp-1.09%, compared with -0.02% in the previous period, in the neutral range of risk premium.
In this period, the overall risk premium of the cycle sector still maintained a high allocation value: in this period, chemical ERP2 55%, a change of – 0.27% over the previous period, in the range of high risk premium; Steel erp7 84%, a change of – 0.84% over the previous period, in the neutral range of risk premium; Nonferrous Metals erp0 85%, a change of – 0.26% compared with the previous period.
In terms of large and medium-sized disk rotation, the price ratio of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 to China Stock Exchange 500 generally showed a downward trend from 1.13 in mid February 2021 to the end of April. After a short recovery in May, it continued to show a downward trend, and the ratio in this period decreased from 0.844 in the previous period to 0.830. The mid market continued to show strength over the market. In terms of large and small disk rotation, the price ratio between CSI 300 and Guozheng 2000 has generally shown a downward trend since the middle of February 2021 (the high point is 0.85), and continued to show a downward trend after a short recovery in May. The ratio in this period decreased from 0.534 in the previous period to 0.517. Small cap continues to be stronger than the overall trend.
In the current period, the dividend yield of Wande quana changed from 1.53% in the previous period to 1.53% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds – the dividend yield of Wande quana was 1.2073%, and the distance from the warning value of 2.5% (the highest point of the bull market in the past) changed from 131.70bp in the previous period to 129.27bp in the current period. The dividend yield of SSE 50 changed from 1.54% in the previous period to 1.52% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds – the dividend yield of SSE 50 was 0.0941%, and the distance from the warning value of 1.1% changed from 102.89bp in the previous period to 100.59bp in the current period. The dividend yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 changed from 2.64% in the previous period to 2.64% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds – the dividend yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 0.711%, and the distance from the warning value of 1.8% changed from 109.57bp in the previous period to 108.90bp in the current period. The dividend yield of CSI 500 changed from 2.01% in the previous period to 2.02% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds – the dividend yield of CSI 500 was 1.2087%, and the distance from the warning value of 3% changed from 182.59bp in the previous period to 179.13bp in the current period.
Risk tip: policy risk
