Macro · special issue

Overseas:

1. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the expedient spending bill to provide funds for the government until March 11 and submitted it to the Senate.

2. Bostick of the Federal Reserve predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times this year, but he personally prefers to raise interest rates four times, and it is expected that each rate increase will be 25 basis points. He also said he hoped to start reducing the balance sheet as soon as possible.

3. Meister, chairman of the 2022 voting Committee of the Federal Reserve and the Cleveland fed, said that it is appropriate for Fed policymakers to raise interest rates faster than the last round of interest rate hike cycle, because the inflation rate is much higher now and the job market is much more tense than in 2015. She also said that the inflation risk is still upward, but the final path and magnitude of the Fed's interest rate hike will depend on economic development. She expects inflation to improve later this year, provided the Fed takes appropriate action.

4. Nagel, the new head of the German central bank, said that if the inflation situation and prospects in March have not improved significantly, the European Central Bank will have to adjust its monetary policy position. The first step is to stop net asset purchases in 2022 and then raise interest rates by the end of this year.

5. Fengming Nakamura, a member of the deliberation Committee of the Bank of Japan, said that unless the price index is stable and wages rise, the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will not be adjusted. He predicted that Japan's CPI would continue to rise and the Bank of Japan would continue to take easing measures; It is expected that easing measures will help Japan improve its growth potential.

6. Peel, chief economist of the Bank of England, hinted that the central bank would not sell British government bonds soon, saying that the bond yield of 1% was not the trigger point, but just a consideration. The Bank of England previously said in its forward-looking guidance that it would consider "actively selling" Treasury bonds once the yield reached 1%.

7. In 2021, Germany's commodity import and export volume was about 1.2 trillion euros and 1.4 trillion euros respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and 14% respectively. Among them, in December last year, the import and export volume of German goods increased month on month for the third consecutive month, with an increase of 4.7% and 0.9% respectively.

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