At the beginning of each year, the market will pay attention to the resumption of work after the festival. The speed of resumption of work and the quality of construction can predict the economic trend of the whole year to a certain extent. At the end of last year, the market still doubted the strength and progress of steady growth. Since the beginning of this year, the clue of steady growth has become more and more clear, and the market has also changed from policy questioning to waiting for data – can the policy effect in the first quarter be effectively realized to the landing data? In this context, the current market is particularly concerned about the resumption of work after the festival.
At present, it is in the period of macro data vacuum. The data of macro indicators such as investment and consumption in January are missing. We can’t use traditional indicators to judge the current macro state. In order to better understand the macro environment of returning to work after the holiday, we used two-dimensional data for cross validation.
The first dimension uses the latest macro data (December 2021) to locate the marginal changes of China’s economy. Combined with overseas data, we can get the basic state of the current macro-economy.
The second dimension is to use high-frequency data to evaluate the current three domestic demand trends – infrastructure, real estate and consumption.
