High frequency economic tracking: affected by the epidemic, the economic momentum has declined
From February 2 to February 9, 2022, the cumulative value of weekly boom recorded 2360, an increase of - 17 compared with the previous week; The year-on-year growth rate of the weekly frequency prosperity index was 5.7%, a sharp increase of 2.3% compared with the previous value, and the four week average year-on-year growth rate was 4.3% and the previous value was 4.8%. On the whole, the month on month data are in line with the seasonal decline of production during the Spring Festival, and the year-on-year strength may reflect the gradual display of the effectiveness of steady growth.
Brief comment on PMI data: overall stronger than seasonality, production stronger than demand
In January 2022, the official manufacturing PMI recorded 50.1, which fell slightly month on month, but it was still stronger than seasonality as a whole, in line with expectations. Structurally, the marginal decline of production and new order index is synchronous, and the performance of production side is still stronger than that of demand; The new export order index rose slightly against the trend, and the momentum of external demand is still strong.
Weekly strategy of bond market: the effect of steady growth is initially shown, and the interest rate may gradually bottom
1. Macro Fundamentals: at present, the global epidemic situation is gradually stable, China's PMI data is stronger than seasonality, and the strong reversal of high-frequency data in early February reflects the gradual stabilization and recovery of China's economy, and the effectiveness of steady growth is initially demonstrated. At the end of January, the rise of bill income may reflect the recovery of credit. In terms of inflation, food prices have continued to fall recently, while bulk commodities have rebounded, and the government has strengthened its efforts to ensure supply and stabilize prices. It is expected that around the first quarter, the effectiveness of stabilizing growth will further appear, and China's economy will gradually stabilize near the potential growth rate.
2. Policy environment: according to recent policy statements and operations, in the face of potential economic pressure, countercyclical operation has been significantly strengthened. While adhering to the long-term main line of "no speculation in real estate" and curbing the expectation of excessive rise in house prices, the regulation in the real estate field began to loosen the policy margin in the guarantee real estate field and stabilize the growth of real estate credit. On the whole, the first quarter was an important window for China to promote steady growth. The monetary side still maintained a stable and loose tone, but with the gradual stabilization of credit, the probability of further interest rate reduction decreased; The financial side actively promotes the formation of physical workload, and appropriately carries out advanced infrastructure construction while improving the project landing rate.
3. Financial space and infrastructure projects: according to the published financial final accounts of 2021, the annual financial surplus is 2978.9 billion, of which the expenditure of government funds only completes 86.6% of the budget. In addition, there are 1.46 trillion special bonds approved in advance, with a total of about 4.5 trillion funds available for the steady growth policy in the first quarter, and the overall financial funds are very abundant. At the level of infrastructure projects, despite the marginal decline of incremental projects, the landing rate of stock projects continues to increase, so there is still a lot of room for financial development.
4. Bond market view: at the capital level, after the cross year market, the capital level is relatively loose recently, and the open market operation of the central bank is basically stable. Emotionally, during the week, the turnover rate of super long bonds, 10-year Treasury bonds and CDB declined, and the mood of loose trading decreased; At the same time, the market duration reflected by the medium and long-term pure debt fund also began to appear a downward inflection point. At present, PMI, high-frequency index, Bill interest rate and other economic data have shown a certain recovery momentum, and the effectiveness of steady growth has gradually become prominent; With the strong growth expectation, the current interest rate point may be in the bottom reversal range.
Risk tip: the implementation effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy needs to be confirmed
