On the whole, the box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 was corrected year-on-year, and ticket prices continued to rise. The box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 reached 6.04 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23% compared with 2021, which was the same as the box office level of 5.9 billion in 2019. In terms of volume price split, ticket prices continued to rise, and the number of passengers decreased significantly. In 2022, the number of film viewers in the Spring Festival was 114 million, a year-on-year decrease of 29%; The average ticket price was 52.8 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%.
We believe that there are several reasons for the decline in the box office: 1) high ticket prices: the price elasticity of non essential entertainment products in the Chinese market is high. The ticket price of 2022 Spring Festival reached a record high, up to 65 yuan in first tier cities, affecting the willingness to watch movies. 2) Lack of popular content: first of all, in terms of the Spring Festival in 19 and 21, comedy and science fiction films topped the list, while in 22, there were fewer such films and more feature films, or there was a certain differentiation with the film viewing demand of the Spring Festival; Secondly, 22 Spring Festival classic IP sequels are few, so it is difficult to enjoy the bonus of fans watching movies. 3) High base of 21-year Spring Festival: in 20 years, due to the epidemic, the closure of cinemas and the postponement of film release, the demand for film viewing was released explosively in the 21-year Spring Festival, and the double periods of Valentine’s day and Spring Festival overlapped. The volume and price of 21-year films increased year-on-year compared with 19 years, showing a high base. 4) Impact of the epidemic: local cinemas strictly implement the epidemic prevention and control requirements, the attendance rate is no more than 75%, and cinemas in medium and high-risk areas are temporarily closed.
The trend of cinema line centralization continues, the proportion of Wanda city increases, and the price raising ability is the strongest. The market concentration of Spring Festival cinemas is high. In 2022, the top ten cinemas in the box office of Spring Festival achieved a total box office of 3.95 billion yuan, accounting for 65.4% of the total box office in China. Among them, the box office market share of Top1 Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) continues to increase, rising from 12.9% of the Spring Festival in 2019 to 14.4% in 2022. The trend of cinema industry integration is further revealed, and the head cinema company is expected to be strong and strong. In terms of ticket prices, the ticket prices of all cinemas have been increased, and the head company has a stronger ability to raise prices. In 2022, the ticket prices of each courtyard line in the Spring Festival are significantly higher than those in the same period in 2021. Among them, Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) the average ticket price rose from 54 yuan to 60 yuan, an increase of more than 10%.
The proportion of box office in low tier cities rose, and the number of film viewers in first tier cities fell significantly. In terms of box office, the sinking market performed prominently, and the split box office in the fourth tier cities was the highest. In the Spring Festival of 22 years, the box office of the fourth tier cities was 2.06 billion yuan, accounting for 34.3% of the total box office. Due to the high ticket price base in high-line cities, the decrease in the number of local Chinese New Year celebrations after the improvement of the epidemic, and the large room for improvement in the viewing demand in low-line cities, the box office share of first and second tier cities decreased in 22 years, while the market share of third and fourth tier cities increased. In terms of ticket prices, all tier cities showed an upward trend, the first tier cities were significantly higher (65 yuan), and the third and fourth tier cities increased significantly (+ 11%). In terms of movie viewing, the number of people in all tier cities decreased. The number of first tier cities decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 36% and a decrease of 6.2 million movie viewers.
Influenced by the film theme, the box office and word-of-mouth show a certain differentiation. On a single piece, the box office of “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” led the way, with a box office of 2.53 billion, accounting for more than 40% of the box office contribution; The rate of films released after the release of the comedy “this killer is not too calm” has continued to rise, from 14.7% in the first day of the first day of the ninth day of the ninth day of the ninth day of the ninth day of the ninth day of the ninth day of the ninth day of the ninth day of the ninth day of the ninth day of the ninth day of the ninth year, with a total box office of 1.39 billion; The box office of “miracle stupid child” on the fifth day and the sixth day of the fifth day showed a rise against the trend, with a total box office of 670 million in the Spring Festival. The overall word-of-mouth of films in the Spring Festival showed an upward trend. From 2019 to 2022, the average Douban score increased from 5.8 to 6.8. However, the box office did not show a trend of increasing with the rise of reputation. The reasons are as follows: 1) there is a certain differentiation between the theme of high scoring films and the demand for family fun during the Spring Festival; 2) Lack of large IP sequels (such as Tang tan).
Risk tips: the risk of industry development falling short of expectations, the risk of unexpected changes in policies, and the risk of repeated outbreaks.
